Joel Embiid's Knee Injury Clouds The Sixers' 2024 NBA Trade ...

3 Feb 2024
Joel Embiid

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 30: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers warms up prior to ... [+] the start of an NBA basketball game against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on January 30, 2024 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

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The Philadelphia 76ers got both good news and bad news on Thursday night.

The good news is that fourth-year guard Tyrese Maxey earned his first All-Star nod. The bad news is that All-Star center Joel Embiid, the league's reigning Most Valuable Player, suffered a lateral meniscus injury on Tuesday night against the Golden State Warriors and is out at least through the weekend.

According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, "there is still uncertainty over how Embiid and the 76ers will move forward with a treatment plan for the injury, and options will be discussed over the next several days." The timing could hardly be worse for the Sixers, who also have to decide what (if anything) to do before the Feb. 8 NBA trade deadline.

The Sixers seemingly expect to have a better of idea in the next few days of when—or if—Embiid will return this season. More than anything else, the answer to that question should shape their approach to the trade deadline.

After Thursday night's game against the Utah Jazz, the Sixers have only seven more games until the All-Star break. Embiid would have the next three weeks to recover if he missed those seven games, although it's currently unclear whether that will be even close to enough time for him. Until the Sixers have more clarity on that, it's impossible to decide what they should be prioritizing at the trade deadline.

If they expect Embiid to be sidelined for most (or all) of the rest of the season, they'll have to decide whether they can live with Paul Reed and Mo Bamba anchoring their frontcourt. If not, another starting-caliber center might soar to the top of their trade deadline wish list.

A reunion with Chicago Bulls center Andre Drummond, who's on a $3.4 million expiring contract, might make sense. The same goes for Detroit Pistons big man Mike Muscala, who's on a $3.5 million expiring deal. If they wanted a higher-end option, Utah Jazz center Kelly Olynyk could be their best bet, as he's on a $12.2 million expiring contract.

If the Sixers acquired any of those three—or anyone else on an expiring deal—they wouldn't be compromising their ability to create around $55 million in salary-cap space this offseason. Although the high-end options in the potential free-agent class are already dwindling, free agency isn't the only way for the Sixers to spend cap space.

The full array of penalties for exceeding the new CBA’s second apron go into effect this offseason, which teams may do everything in their power to avoid. The Memphis Grizzlies already sent Steven Adams to the Houston Rockets on Thursday for Victor Oladipo's expiring contract and three second-round picks with their long-term financial picture in mind, and they likely won't be the last team to make a financially motivated trade over the coming months.

The Atlanta Hawks salary-dumped John Collins onto the Utah Jazz last offseason for Rudy Gay's expiring deal and a second-round pick. That may be only the tip of the iceberg, and the Sixers would be in prime position to benefit if they roll most or all of their cap space over until the offseason.

The severity of Embiid's knee injury should not only bring into focus which positions to prioritize, but it could also crystallize how aggressive to be overall. The Bulls have been shopping Zach LaVine for months and have yet to find a taker, while the Atlanta Hawks are all ears on offers for Dejounte Murray, according to multiple reports. The Sixers have largely batted down their interest in either player to date, but that was prior to Embiid's injury.

No one player is replacing someone who's averaging a career-high 35.3 points per game and leading the league in scoring for the third straight year, but the Sixers could be of two minds for however long he's sidelined. Tyrese Maxey and the rest of the Sixers' supporting cast could need more offensive ammunition without their focal point, which might motivate the front office to swing for a star. But if they don't expect Embiid to return to something close to full strength by the playoffs, they might not be willing to compromise their offseason flexibility.

The Sixers' odds of winning this year's championship have already fallen to +2000, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, now trailing the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder at +1700 each. Before Embiid's injury, they had the sixth-best title odds, behind only the Boston Celtics (+280), Denver Nuggets (+440), Milwaukee Bucks (+550), Los Angeles Clippers (+700) and Phoenix Suns (+1200).

Team president Daryl Morey once told then-Grantland's Zach Lowe that teams with even a 5 percent chance to win the championship needed to be "focused all on winning the title." The Sixers' current title odds equate to roughly that, but their odds are subject to further change depending on the severity of Embiid's injury.

His timetable to return will also impact their chance of retaining a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. They've already tumbled from the No. 3 seed to the No. 5 seed in recent days, although they have a healthy gap over the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers for now. Still, not having home-court advantage for a single round of the playoffs could also impact how aggressive the Sixers plan to be at the trade deadline.

Regardless of what they do, the Sixers aren't winning a championship this year without a relatively healthy Embiid. That should be their primary focus both before and after the trade deadline. They need to be more proactive about his health and not let him needlessly play through injuries in the regular season when he's visibly hobbled.

Now that he's likely going to fall well short of the new 65-game minimum for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and the All-NBA teams, Embiid might not feel as much pressure to rush back prematurely. The same might be true if the Sixers acquire a big man like Olynyk or Drummond who can help keep them afloat until Embiid returns.

While the Sixers have a glaring new short-term need at center, they otherwise have to wait on more information about Embiid's injury before deciding whom to seriously pursue at the trade deadline.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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