The Odds Are Stacked Against Argentina's Next President

On Sunday, Argentine voters will elect their next president in a runoff campaign that has been the most divisive in decades. Sergio Massa, Argentina’s current economy minister for the current center-left government and leader of the Union of the Fatherland coalition, will face Javier Milei, an anti-establishment and far-right libertarian of the Liberty Advances coalition. The vote has the potential to permanently alter the political landscape in one of the world’s largest agricultural producers that is also home to large reserves of lithium, a crucial ingredient in the production of electronic batteries. Polls predict a tight race, with the majority of pollsters giving Milei a slight edge.

The winner will inherit an economy mired in recession. Argentina has been battered by a historic drought this year, as well as by failing fiscal and monetary policies, high debt, and an inflation rate of more than 140 percent—up from 79 percent when Massa took over the Ministry of Economy in August 2022. Two-fifths of the population in Argentina lives in poverty, leading a growing number of young Argentines to emigrate to countries such as Spain. To make matters even more complicated, neither Massa nor Milei would have a majority in the legislature, and presidents with fragile congressional support have historically struggled to get much done, or even finish their terms.

The emergence of a radical outsider with a serious chance of becoming Argentina’s president does not come as a surprise. In democracies across the world, the past decade has seen candidates with anti-establishment rhetoric and authoritarian tendencies win elections, or come close—such as in the United States, Brazil, or Colombia. Considering that neither the center-right Maurício Macri government, which ruled from 2015 to 2019, nor the current government of Alberto Fernandez—who has not sought reelection—succeeded in stabilizing Argentina’s economy, Argentina was fertile ground for Milei to rise.

Milei has been described by international observers as an “erratic libertarian,” “extremist,” and “populist,” but he calls himself an “anarcho-capitalist” and has vowed to fight the “parasitic caste” of political operatives whom he holds responsible for Argentina’s crisis. Among his most controversial proposals are to close the Central Bank and dollarize the economy, loosen gun restrictions and downgrade diplomatic ties to countries Milei describes as communist or socialist. He has attacked the leaders of countries such as Brazil, China, the United States, and Chile, which are Argentina’s four most important trading partners. Milei also has denied climate change is caused by humans, engaged in denialist discourse about Argentina’s dictatorship, and vowed to radically slash public spending, including on issues such as fighting racism and strengthening women’s rights. Yet the fact that Massa received more votes than Milei in the first round, even though Massa is overseeing a worsening economic situation, suggests many voters were put off by Milei’s radicalism and abrasive style—which even included attacks on Pope Francis, who hails from Argentina.

After a somewhat disappointing result in the first round last month, when many polls had predicted he would obtain the largest number of votes, Milei has sought to moderate his rhetoric. This effort is an attempt to attract voters who had cast their ballots for Patrícia Bullrich and her center-right Together for Change coalition in the first round. Both Bullrich and Macri threw their support behind Milei after the October vote, yet whether voters will take their advice is unclear—the conservative alliance with Milei has been uneasy at best. Just like in the United States and in Brazil, where the emergence of an anti-establishment right-wing candidate has undermined traditional conservative forces, the election of Milei may lead to the fracturing of the Together for Change coalition.

One major unknown for both domestic and international analysts is whether Milei would govern according to the radicalism he embraced prior to the first round, or as a somewhat more moderate president as his rhetoric during the runoff suggests. While Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro enjoyed strong support from several organized and politically powerful groups, such as the armed forces and the police, Milei lacks the same level of backing from any such organizations. In addition, Milei’s party controls only a small number of seats in the Argentine Senate and Chamber of Deputies. Even if he can garner support from conservatives on specific votes, they are unlikely to go along with his most radical ideas.

Massa is seen as a progressive moderate leftist—or “the least Peronist of the Peronists”—but without congressional support for his vision, he would have to depend on more radical leftist elements. These coalition members are resistant to reducing public spending or subsidies, steps that would be necessary to address Argentina’s long-standing problems with inflation. With around half of the population depending on government-funded additional income or job programs, cutting spending would temporarily increase poverty even further, come at a high political cost, and could quickly produce social unrest.

Considering this very challenging economic scenario and deep divisions between two very different visions for the country—one of continuity and careful adjustments, another of radical change—whoever wins will be rejected by about half of all voters. It is no exaggeration, then, to say that Argentina’s next president will have the odds stacked against him.