ATAR cut-offs could fall as year 12 demand for uni hits new low
Year 12 applications through the University Admissions Centre are at the lowest level in more than a decade as demand for higher education falls.
The decline in applications means the ATAR cut-off for some degrees could fall as students defer their studies or choose to work in the face of the increasing cost of living.
Despite a larger cohort of HSC students, the number of all applications through the University Admissions Centre as of November dropped two per cent compared to last year. The number of early offers through UAC fell about 10 per cent.
Kim Paino, the general manager of marketing and engagement at UAC, said the high cost of living, stronger job market and increased costs of university degrees could all be contributing to the softening of demand.
“HECS has been such a feature of our system for such a long time. But when you’re in an era of high inflation, the cost accumulates more considerably, and also the actual percentage of your course contributions is just much higher than it has been, particularly if you’re studying humanities,” she said.
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The cost of some degrees including arts, commerce and law can be more than $45,000. If a student defers payment, the total owing is also inflated by indexation. For 2023, the indexation rate was 7.1 per cent.
The number of year 12 UAC early bird applications is at the lowest point in at least 13 years, the time period publicly available data is available. There were 38,836 applications as of the close of early bird this year compared to a high of 43,303 in 2015.
Some universities take direct applications from students, which are not included in the data, but the trend is in line with a general decline in demand for universities. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the number of people studying a bachelor’s degree is at the lowest level since 2011.
Paino said the slowdown in demand could have a knock-on effect for ATAR cut-offs.
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“The competitive courses will probably stay at very high cut-offs because demand has always far outstripped supply,” she said.
“In some of the other courses ... the unis may have to reduce their cut-offs to fill the amount of spots they want,” she said.
“That’s a call that universities will make. Some unis just won’t go below a certain mark and they just won’t fill those spots, but other unis may seek to fill by going lower.”
Australian National University higher education expert Andrew Norton said it was not clear if the drop-off in applications stemmed mainly from students who may never have gotten an offer, or if they are among the traditional university cohort who will score a 75 and above ATAR.
“The big question is: [is the move away from uni] just because jobs are easier to find or is there something more significant going on underneath?” he asked.
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University of Wollongong vice chancellor Patricia Davidson said cost-of-living pressures had contributed to an increase in students going part-time or deferring their studies.
She said there was increasing demand for courses linked to strong job projects like cybersecurity, computer science, education, health sciences, engineering and business.
“Five years ago students were surveyed and said, ‘I want a global experience’. Now they’re looking for jobs,” Davidson said.
A Sydney University spokeswoman said it was experiencing a 7 per cent increase in first preferences for some degrees, with particular demand in business, engineering, health sciences and degrees at the Conservatorium of Music.
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