Brownlow mega-guide: Expert tips, the contenders round by round ...
Brownlow mega-guide: Expert tips, the contenders round by round, and the roughies
September 22, 2024 — 8.54pm
Tipping the Brownlow winner should not be too difficult, at least if you trust our experts. Ten of The Age’s 13 tipsters have selected Nick Daicos, the silky son of a Magpie great, to claim football’s highest individual honour in 2024. But what if you look beyond the favourites, for a roughie capable of upstaging the superstar midfielders of the competition? (And let’s be honest, it’s not dubbed the midfielder’s medal for nothing.)
On the sixth line of betting is an All-Australian from the west who figures in the selections of four of our experts. Emma Kearney, Sam McClure and Jon Pierik chose Fremantle star Caleb Serong as their roughie, while Marnie Vinall thinks he will finish second in the count at Crown Palladium on Monday night.
Clockwise from top left: The bookmakers’ Brownlow top four in Patrick Cripps, Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli and Lachie Neale.Credit: Getty Images/Marija Ercegovac
While fellow Dockers Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young will also attract the umpires’ attention, Serong could bolt out of the blocks with maximum votes in the opening two rounds, and is forecast to poll in another 12 rounds after that.
There are some other interesting names among our experts’ predictions, too. Kane Cornes has a Port tough nut in the mix, while Peter Ryan thinks a quick Cat is worth a look.
Patrick Cripps $2.50Nick Daicos $2.75Lachie Neale $8Marcus Bontempelli $13Zach Merrett $34Caleb Serong $41Errol Gulden $67Tom Green $81Zak Butters $81Adam Treloar $101Chad Warner $101(via Sportsbet, as of Sunday afternoon)
To read Andrew Wu’s detailed Brownlow preview, click here.
Below are our experts’ tips, along with round-by-round predictions for five leading contenders, and one player who can’t win. Speaking of which, should Isaac Heeney have been scrubbed from Brownlow contention for the errant backhander that connected with St Kilda’s Jimmy Webster and resulted in a one-match ban? Chief football writer Jake Niall thinks not, and you can read his argument here.
Winner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Marcus BontempelliRoughie: Zach MerrettNick Daicos was my pre-season pick, and he stood out even more this year than last. It’s hard to see him missing the podium. Like many, I’ll be barracking for The Bont with the only query being whether Adam Treloar purloins votes from the champ. Zach Merrett is nearly Essendon’s best player every time they win.
Emma KearneyWinner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Patrick CrippsRoughie: Caleb SerongAll three midfielders had outstanding years, and were their side’s’ dominant mids. Daicos has had a consistent year and is very eye-catching to the umpires given his class on the outside.
Winner: Marcus BontempelliRunner-up: Nick DaicosRoughie: Jason Horne-FrancisBontempelli’s best games were standouts, and the Bulldogs won enough games for him to get other votes consistently. Carlton’s late-season collapse will hurt Patrick Cripps’ hopes.
Andrew WuWinner: Patrick Cripps and Nick DaicosRunner-up: Lachie NealeRoughie: Errol GuldenI’m tipping joint winners on the night for the first time since 2003. Both midfielders were standouts in sides that won more than they lost and were rarely beaten by big margins. Lachie Neale always polls well, and Errol Gulden was as prolific this year as last.
Winner: Patrick CrippsRunner-up: Lachie NealeRoughie: Caleb SerongPatrick Cripps had, individually, an epic season which only went under the radar due to his team’s cataclysmic fall away. Lachie Neale will storm home but I expect the Blues captain to win his second.
Peter RyanWinner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Lachie NealeRoughie: Max HolmesWhen Nick Daicos plays well he dominates, meaning he will rack up threes. Lachie Neale’s middle part of the season was exceptional with Patrick Cripps also close. Holmes was Geelong’s best player and will poll well.
Winner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Patrick CrippsRoughie: Tom GreenDaicos was brilliant again in 2024, with a knee injury arguably all that stopped him winning last year. Cripps is an obvious threat, while Green won a stack of the Sherrin.
Kane CornesWinner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Lachie NealeRoughie: Zak ButtersDaicos is the obvious choice and due to him missing out through injury [last year] the umpires will favour him when tossing up between him and other influential players on game day. More midfield minutes this season will equal more votes.
Winner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Marcus BontempelliRoughie: Jai NewcombeDaicos’ last game of the year in the dead-rubber win over Melbourne, when he ran around and made sure of three votes, could give him the edge. Patrick Cripps had a good year but the Blues tapering at the end of season will make it hard. The Dogs won enough for The Bont to get votes.
Jon PierikWinner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Patrick CrippsRoughie: Caleb SerongThis shapes as an extremely tight tussle between Daicos and Cripps, and we may well have joint winners. Cripps will start well, before Daicos gets going between rounds eight and 12. There could be four best on grounds for the Magpie from round 18 (Cripps may have three), which may be enough for Daicos to salute.
Winner: Patrick CrippsRunner-up: Marcus BontempelliRoughie: Jason Horne-FrancisIn a year where Carlton stumbled, Cripps consistently stood up and was a standout particularly in the second half of the year.
Marnie VinallWinner: Nick DaicosRunner-up: Caleb SerongRoughie: Zach MerrettAlthough it’s hard not putting Marcus Bontempelli up there, Nick Daicos had a standout year. He was rough to miss out last year due to a late injury. Essendon may have had a less than ideal season, and Merrett didn’t even make the All-Australian team, but he consistently played well.
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