Club-by-club guide: Every team's best Brownlow chance, top three
WHO IS your club's best Brownlow chance?
AFL.com.au takes a look back on the 2024 season, running the rule over all 18 sides to analyse whether it could be a memorable night for a player from your club.
The 2024 Brownlow Medal will be held on Monday, September 23 at Crown Melbourne from 7.30pm AEST.
BROWNLOW PREDICTOR Who will take home Charlie?
BROWNLOW GUIDE How to watch, stream and follow live
BROWNLOW HUB Previews, live leaderboards and more
WHAT TO EXPECT Early leader, most games polling, first-year stars
HISTORY Your club's Brownlow winners, most three-vote games
Best chance: Jordan Dawson
Dawson enjoyed another consistent season, headlined by performances in big wins over West Coast (32 disposals, two goals) and the Western Bulldogs (27 disposals, one goal) that should put him among the votes. But will it be enough to see him top last season's career high of 20 votes? Izak Rankine is also likely to poll his fair share, but a suspension late in the season rules him ineligible and will scupper his chances.
One-vote wonder: Taylor Walker (Round 5, v Carlton)
It could be the veteran key forward's only vote for the year, having helped dismantle Carlton with 14 disposals, 10 marks and four goals under the roof at Marvel Stadium. He played a pivotal role in a big Adelaide win.
Brownlow Predictor
18 - Jordan Dawson
10 - Izak Rankine*
6 - Rory Laird, Jake Soligo
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.05 - Jordan Dawson
$18 - Izak Rankine
$21 - Ben Keays, Rory Laird
Predicted team votes: 53
2023 most votes: Jordan Dawson, Rory Laird (20 votes)
Ineligible: Matt Crouch, Izak Rankine
Previous winners: Marc Ricciuto (2003)
Best chance: Lachie Neale
Can he make it three? Neale's season stands up among his best. He had 20 disposals in all but one game, was among the League leaders for clearances, and continued to hit the scoreboard throughout the campaign. He also won't have many teammates stealing votes among Brisbane's 14 wins for the year. Expect him to be among the frontrunners, where he'll look to become just the fifth player in history to claim three Brownlows.
One-vote wonder: Charlie Cameron (Round 5, v Melbourne)
The electric small forward produced his best performance of the year in helping to down the Demons, kicking three goals to go with 17 disposals and nine marks. Expect to see him among the votes.
Brownlow Predictor
32 - Lachie Neale
15 - Hugh McCluggage
11 - Dayne Zorko
Sportsbet most team votes (without Neale)
$1.35 - Hugh McCluggage
$5.50 - Dayne Zorko
$10 - Josh Dunkley
Predicted team votes: 88
2023 most votes: Lachie Neale (31 votes)
Ineligible: Eric Hipwood
Previous winners: Haydn Bunton snr (1931, 1932, 1935), Wilfred Smallhorn (1933), Denis Ryan (1936), Allan Ruthven (1950), Kevin Murray (1969), Bernie Quinlan (1981), Michael Voss (1996), Jason Akermanis (2001), Simon Black (2002), Lachie Neale (2020, 2023)
Best chance: Patrick Cripps
The favourite. Cripps enjoyed the best season of his already remarkable career, demonstrating his talent through brute force and class in the trenches. The Carlton captain racked up 20 touches in all but one game, while kicking 16 goals and continuing his standing as the League's best clearance player. He'll poll in the majority of his side's 13 wins, elevating him as the frontrunner to claim his second Brownlow Medal.
One-vote wonder: Brodie Kemp (Round 23, v West Coast)
Could it be the first votes of the youngster's career? He gave himself the best chance following a shock switch forward, where he helped Carlton secure a vital win with four goals from 12 disposals, six marks and five tackles.
Brownlow Predictor
33 - Patrick Cripps
19 - Sam Walsh
9 - Charlie Curnow
Sportsbet most team votes (without Cripps & Walsh)
$1.90 - Charlie Curnow
$3.25 - Tom De Koning
$7 - Harry McKay
Predicted team votes: 80
2023 most votes: Patrick Cripps (22 votes)
Ineligible: Lachie Fogarty, Matt Owies
Previous winners: Bert Deacon (1947), John James (1961), Gordon Collis (1964), Greg Williams (1994), Chris Judd (2010), Patrick Cripps (2022)
Best chance: Nick Daicos
What more can you say about Collingwood's little master? Daicos combined his brilliance at the coal face with class on the outside and an unnerving ability to get forward and hit the scoreboard consistently. Daicos was unstoppable at times this year, acting as one of the AFL's leading ball-winners and most damaging forward-half players. Will it be enough for the youngster to earn his first Brownlow Medal?
One-vote wonder: Will Hoskin-Elliott (Round 6, v Port Adelaide)
The veteran wound back the years in a big win over Port Adelaide, where he kicked two goals from 21 disposals and nine marks. Could it be enough to see him snare his first Brownlow votes since 2018?
Brownlow Predictor
33- Nick Daicos
6 - Jack Crisp
5 - Josh Daicos, Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury
Sportsbet most team votes (without N.Daicos)
$2.25 - Jack Crisp
$2.25 - Josh Daicos
$9 - Jordan De Goey
Predicted team votes: 69
2023 most votes: Nick Daicos (28 votes)
Ineligible: Lachie Schultz
Previous winners: Syd Coventry (1927), Albert Collier (1929), Harry Collier (1930), Marcus Whelan (1939), Des Fothergill (1940), Len Thompson (1972), Peter Moore (1979), Nathan Buckley (2003), Dane Swan (2011)
Best chance: Zach Merrett
Merrett will be an outside chance for the Brownlow, given his fantastic consistency and ability to impact nearly every game he played this year. The Essendon skipper was terrific, enjoying a career-best campaign where he hit 20 disposals in every game except one. Expect maximum votes in wins against Richmond (31 disposals, one goal) and West Coast (29 disposals, three goals) to kickstart his evening.
One-vote wonder: Archie Perkins (Round 1, v Hawthorn)
He hasn't won votes since his debut year in 2021, but this could be the season. Perkins helped to overcome Hawthorn with a best-on-ground display that featured 24 disposals, eight clearances, 12 tackles and two goals. Expect a vote, if not three.
Brownlow Predictor
25 - Zach Merrett
9 - Sam Durham
9 - Nic Martin
Sportsbet most team votes (without Merrett)
$1.15 - Nic Martin
$7.25 - Jye Caldwell
$15 - Sam Durham
Predicted team votes: 69
2023 most votes: Zach Merrett (17 votes)
Ineligible: Mason Redman, Peter Wright, Harrison Jones
Previous winners: Dick Reynolds (1934, 1937, 1938), Bill Hutchison (1952, 1953), Graham Moss (1976), Gavin Wanganeen (1993), James Hird (1996)
Best chance: Caleb Serong
Expect to see Serong's name among the top of the leaderboard throughout the night. The Fremantle midfielder was fantastic this year, combining his prolific ball-winning ability with his strong clearance work and an improving rate of hitting the scoreboard. The only threat to Serong's chances could be his teammates, with Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young also expected to poll well across the evening.
One-vote wonder: Michael Walters (Round 3, v Adelaide)
The veteran produced one of his best performances of the season to help defeat Adelaide, kicking two goals to complement 21 disposals and eight marks. Let's just hope it's enough to see him break a Brownlow drought that dates back to 2020.
Brownlow Predictor
23 - Caleb Serong
18 - Andrew Brayshaw
12 - Hayden Young
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.05 - Caleb Serong
$10 - Andrew Brayshaw
$26 - Hayden Young
Predicted team votes: 81
2023 most votes: Caleb Serong (24 votes)
Ineligible: Nat Fyfe, Tom Emmett
Previous winners: Nat Fyfe (2015, 2019)
Best chance: Jeremy Cameron
Cameron will be rewarded across the night, having kicked hauls of nine goals (against West Coast), six (North Melbourne and Adelaide) and five (Carlton) throughout the year. That should be enough to steal a march on teammate Max Holmes in what could be a close count at Geelong. Cameron typically polls well for a key forward, but should also get his fair share of votes in games where he roamed much higher up the field.
One-vote wonder: Zach Guthrie (Round 8, v Melbourne)
It was a breakout year for the Geelong youngster and it could land him the first Brownlow votes of his career. His chance will come against Melbourne, where he took nine marks to go with 24 disposals and a goal. Surely, it'll result in votes.
Brownlow Predictor
15 - Jeremy Cameron
15 - Max Holmes
11 - Tom Stewart
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.10 - Jeremy Cameron
$8 - Max Holmes
$13 - Tom Stewart
Predicted team votes: 73
2023 most votes: Jeremy Cameron (13 votes)
Ineligible: Mark Blicavs, Jhye Clark
Previous winners: Edward Greeves jnr (1924), Bernie Smith (1951), Alistair Lord (1962), Paul Couch (1989), Jimmy Bartel (2007), Gary Ablett jnr (2009), Patrick Dangerfield (2016)
Best chance: Noah Anderson
After racking up 22 votes last year, expect Anderson to go some way towards topping that figure this time around. The Suns midfielder finds his own footy at the source, but has also improved his ability to hit the scoreboard. That could be enough to see him pip teammate and close friend Matt Rowell to lead Gold Coast's count. You can also expect to see Sam Flanders poll his fair share of votes, particularly later in the season.
One-vote wonder: Mac Andrew (Round 22, v Essendon)
Has to get votes for a match-winning moment that saw him kick a goal after the siren to defeat Essendon. It topped off a game where Andrew slotted four majors to go with 13 disposals and five marks. Could it result in the first Brownlow votes of his career?
Brownlow Predictor
18 - Matt Rowell
17 - Noah Anderson
14 - Sam Flanders
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.15 - Noah Anderson
$5.50 - Matt Rowell
$10 - Sam Flanders
Predicted team votes: 67
2023 most votes: Noah Anderson (22 votes)
Ineligible: Malcolm Rosas jnr, Alex Davies
Previous winners: Gary Ablett jnr (2013)
Best chance: Tom Green
Green was the premier midfielder in Greater Western Sydney's star-studded team, which should put him towards the top of the leaderboard on Brownlow night. Green is a strong candidate given he wins plenty of his own footy, while he's also had a stronger influence on games. Expect to see Coleman Medal winner Jesse Hogan win plenty of votes, while Lachie Whitfield was also prolific throughout the season.
One-vote wonder: Callum Brown (Opening Round, v Collingwood)
What a game from the Irishman. Playing as a deep forward, Brown kicked five goals from 11 disposals and seven marks in a career-best night to kickstart the season. Having already played in one three-vote game back in 2022, this could be his second.
Brownlow Predictor
22 - Tom Green
14 - Jesse Hogan
11 - Lachie Whitfield
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.05 - Tom Green
$11 - Jesse Hogan
$15 - Lachie Whitfield
Predicted team votes: 82
2023 most votes: Toby Greene (20 votes)
Ineligible: Toby Greene, Callum Brown, Lachie Ash
Previous winners: Nil
Best chance: Jai Newcombe
A number of Hawthorn's talented young midfielders could lead the way for the club on Brownlow night, but Newcombe's consistency and his proven ability to poll well (he notched 18 votes in a breakout season last year) could see him edge ahead. Newcombe racked up more than 30 disposals in five games this year, all wins, which should see him grab his fair share of votes. But you can also expect to see the names of Dylan Moore, James Worpel and Will Day flash up across the course of the evening.
One-vote wonder: Connor Macdonald (Round 20, v Adelaide)
The fan favourite had a fantastic year, but enjoyed no game better than his display against Adelaide late in the campaign. Macdonald finished with two goals from 28 disposals. If that wasn't enough to catch the eye, his celebrations would have been. If the umpires picked up on them, he could earn the first Brownlow votes of his career.
Brownlow Predictor
17 - Jai Newcombe
13 - James Worpel
11 - Will Day
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.05 - Jai Newcombe
$10 - Dylan Moore
$26 - James Worpel
Predicted team votes: 82
2023 most votes: Jai Newcombe (18 votes)
Ineligible: Mabior Chol, Jack Scrimshaw
Previous winners: Col Austen (1949), Robert DiPierdomenico (1986), John Platten (1987), Shane Crawford (1999), Sam Mitchell (2012), Tom Mitchell (2018)
Best chance: Christian Petracca
Petracca will poll well early, but can he hold on? The Melbourne superstar will almost certainly be among the Brownlow frontrunners right up until round 13, when he suffered his season-ending injury against Collingwood. Max Gawn and Jack Viney could peg him back later in the night, but expect Petracca to have done enough to lead the way for the Demons. Petracca's three best games, which all featured 29 disposals and a goal, came in wins over the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Adelaide early in the year.
One-vote wonder: Daniel Turner (Round 7, v Richmond)
The man nicknamed 'Disco' could pick up the first Brownlow votes of his career after starring on Anzac Day Eve. Thrown forward for his first appearance of the season, Turner kicked three goals from 13 disposals and eight marks to guide the Dees to victory.
Brownlow Predictor
11 - Christian Petracca
10 - Max Gawn
9 - Jack Viney
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.10 - Max Gawn
$6 - Christian Petracca
$34 - Jack Viney
Predicted team votes: 62
2023 most votes: Christian Petracca (26 votes)
Ineligible: Kysaiah Pickett
Previous winners: Ivor Warne-Smith (1926, 1928), Don Cordner (1946), Brian Wilson (1982), Peter Moore (1984), Jim Stynes (1991), Shane Woewodin (2000)
Best chance: Harry Sheezel
Sheezel will storm home, with the star youngster set to rack up plenty of votes throughout the back half of his season. Sheezel was terrific when asked to play through the midfield, demonstrating his incredible influence through his ball-winning and creativity forward of centre. He will vie with teammate Luke Davies-Uniacke to be North's leading vote-getter, but should poll maximum votes in the side's wins over Gold Coast (35 disposals, one goal), West Coast (30 disposals, one goal) and Richmond (29 disposals, six clearances). He'll be a Brownlow contender in years to come.
One-vote wonder: Tom Powell (Round 2, v Fremantle)
The youngster dominated against the Dockers to finish with 28 disposals, eight clearances, five tackles and two goals. It might have come in a big defeat, but it could also be enough to earn Powell the first Brownlow votes of his career.
Brownlow Predictor
14 - Harry Sheezel
10 - Luke Davies-Uniacke
5 - George Wardlaw, Tristan Xerri
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.95 - Harry Sheezel
$2.10 - Luke Davies-Uniacke
$18 - Tristan Xerri
Predicted team votes: 38
2023 most votes: Luke Davies-Uniacke (13 votes)
Ineligible: Kallan Dawson
Previous winners: Noel Teasdale (1965), Keith Greig (1973, 1974), Malcolm Blight (1978), Ross Glendinning (1983)
Best chance: Zak Butters
Butters emerged as a genuine Brownlow Medal force last year when he racked up 27 votes and he could surpass that total this time around. The tough youngster starred in a career-best campaign, winning plenty of his own footy and providing the drive from the Power midfield. The likes of Jason Horne-Francis, Ollie Wines and Connor Rozee are sure to challenge Butters for votes, but expect him to be the club's leading contender. Butters will be hoping he's done enough to be among the frontrunners on the night.
One-vote wonder: Jase Burgoyne (Round 7, v St Kilda)
His father, Peter, amassed plenty of Brownlow votes throughout his time, but these could be the first of Jase's bright young career. Burgoyne dominated in a win over St Kilda, finishing with 27 disposals to go with eight marks and five clearances.
Brownlow Predictor
21 - Zak Butters
19 - Connor Rozee
17 - Jason Horne-Francis, Ollie Wines
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.20 Zak Butters
$6 Jason Horne-Francis
$15 Connor Rozee
Predicted team votes: 85
2023 most votes: Zak Butters (27 votes)
Ineligible: Sam Powell-Pepper, Mitch Georgiades, Dan Houston
Previous winners: Ollie Wines (2021)
Best chance: Tim Taranto
Brownlow night won't be a big one for Richmond, but Taranto could still snare a few votes across the evening. He starred in the club's two wins for the year against Sydney (35 disposals, one goal) and Adelaide (26 disposals, six clearances) and could poll in both. That could be enough to see him pip Daniel Rioli as the side's leading vote winner.
One-vote wonder: Dustin Martin (Round 11, v Essendon)
Martin has won 212 Brownlow votes across his extraordinary career, but these could be the last of them. He wound back the clock in one of his final games to finish with 23 disposals and three goals in a narrow defeat to Essendon. Surely, the name of the 2017 winner will be called one final time.
Brownlow Predictor
10 - Tim Taranto
5 - Daniel Rioli
5 - Nick Vlastuin
Sportsbet most team votes
$3.75 - Daniel Rioli
$3.75 - Tim Taranto
$5.50 - Shai Bolton
Predicted team votes: 30
2023 most votes: Tim Taranto (19 votes)
Ineligible: Liam Baker
Previous winners: Stan Judkins (1930), Bill Morris (1948), Roy Wright (1952, 1954), Ian Stewart (1971), Trent Cotchin (2012), Dustin Martin (2017)
Best chance: Rowan Marshall
The big St Kilda ruck will collect a stack of votes, particularly late in the year when he began to hit the scoreboard more often. Marshall has always been a big ball-winner, but that influence forward of centre could see him noticed more often by the umpires. Midfield duo Jack Sinclair and Jack Steele will also grab their slice of the votes, but expect Marshall's dominance late in the campaign to be rewarded.
One-vote wonder: Darcy Wilson (Round 8, v North Melbourne)
The first-year gun had a fantastic season and will be expecting his first Brownlow votes following his performance in a win over North Melbourne. The exciting winger finished with 21 disposals, eight marks and three goals. It'll surely be enough to catch the eye of the umpires.
Brownlow Predictor
17 - Rowan Marshall
11 - Jack Sinclair
10 - Jack Steele
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.25 - Rowan Marshall
$6 - Jack Sinclair
$6 - Jack Steele
Predicted team votes: 65
2023 most votes: Jack Sinclair (21 votes)
Ineligible: Jimmy Webster, Max King, Marcus Windhager, Jack Higgins
Previous winners: Colin Watson (1925), Brian Gleeson (1957), Neil Roberts (1958), Verdun Howell (1959), Ian Stewart (1965, 1966), Ross Smith (1967), Tony Lockett (1987), Robert Harvey (1997, 1998)
Best chance: Errol Gulden
Isaac Heeney might have been among the favourites for the Brownlow Medal, had it not been for a suspension midway through the year. That could push Gulden among the leading Sydney contenders, particularly after a year where he improved his ball-winning abilities in a Swans side that won more games. Heeney, as well as Chad Warner, will steal plenty of votes. But Gulden is a proven vote-winner, having racked up 27 votes last season and could be among the frontrunners once again this season.
One-vote wonder: Joel Amartey (Round 14, v Adelaide)
Forget about one-vote wonder, Amartey will be the three-vote wonder. He is guaranteed to poll following a nine-goal performance against Adelaide where he managed 10 scoring shots from 10 kicks. He also had seven marks and six tackles in a career night.
Brownlow Predictor
26 - Errol Gulden
26 - Isaac Heeney*
22 - Chad Warner
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.20 - Isaac Heeney
$5.50 - Errol Gulden
$12 - Chad Warner
Predicted team votes: 102
2023 most votes: Errol Gulden (27 votes)
Ineligible: Isaac Heeney
Previous winners: Herbie Matthews (1940), Ron Clegg (1949), Fred Goldsmith (1955), Bob Skilton (1959, 1963, 1968), Peter Bedford (1970), Graham Teasdale (1977), Barry Round (1981), Greg Williams (1986), Gerard Healy (1988), Paul Kelly (1995), Adam Goodes (2003, 2006)
Best chance: Elliot Yeo
It won't be a busy night for West Coast, but Yeo should still attract a handful of votes for a couple of big performances in Eagles wins this year. Yeo should poll in victories against Richmond (27 disposals, two goals) and Fremantle (26 disposals, one goal), which could be enough to see him emerge as the club's leading vote-getter. First-year star Harley Reid would be a chance, but is ineligible due to being suspended.
One-vote wonder: Oscar Allen (Round 22, v North Melbourne)
It was a frustrating season for the West Coast co-captain, but he should get some recognition following a thrilling win over North Melbourne. Allen kicked five goals from 14 disposals and five marks to inspire the dramatic late comeback.
Brownlow Predictor
9 - Elliot Yeo
8 - Harley Reid*
5 - Jake Waterman
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.30 - Elliot Yeo
$6 - Jake Waterman
$10 - Harley Reid
Predicted team votes: 28
2023 most votes: Tim Kelly (11 votes)
Ineligible: Tom Barrass, Harley Reid, Jack Hutchinson, Jack Petruccelle
Previous winners: Chris Judd (2004), Ben Cousins (2005), Matt Priddis (2014)
Best chance: Marcus Bontempelli
Is this finally the year that Bontempelli wins his Brownlow? The Western Bulldogs captain was superb once again this season, combining his fantastic clearance ability with goalkicking nous and superb leadership. Having polled tallies of 33 votes, 29 votes, 22 votes and 21 votes in the past, Bontempelli deserves his crowning night. Given he'll almost certainly be among the frontrunners this year, could it finally be his evening?
One-vote wonder: Rory Lobb (Round 16, v North Melbourne)
Lobb is no stranger to Brownlow night, polling in five consecutive seasons now. He should make it six after going back against North Melbourne, inspiring a big win with 16 disposals, eight marks and 12 intercepts.
Brownlow Predictor
26 - Marcus Bontempelli
18 - Adam Treloar
10 - Tom Liberatore*
Sportsbet most team votes
$1.10 - Marcus Bontempelli
$7 - Adam Treloar
$26 - Ed Richards
Predicted team votes: 88
2023 most votes: Marcus Bontempelli (29 votes)
Ineligible: James Harmes, Rhylee West, Tom Liberatore, Sam Darcy
Previous winners: Allan Hopkins (1930), Norman Ware (1941), Peter Box (1956), John Schulz (1960), Gary Dempsey (1975), Kevin Templeton (1980), Brad Hardie (1985), Tony Liberatore (1990), Scott Wynd (1992), Adam Cooney (2008)
