Celtics vs. Heat prediction, odds: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference ...

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat visit Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Friday evening. Butler and the Heat emerged with an upset victory in Game 1 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Wednesday, flipping home-court advantage in the process. The Celtics aim to even the series in Game 2 in front of a raucous home crowd at TD Garden. Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) is listed as probable for Boston, with Tyler Herro (hand) out for Miami.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 9.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 215.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -9.5Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 215.5 points Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -480, Heat +360MIA: The Heat are 20-26-1 against the spread in road games BOS: The Celtics are 28-21 against the spread in home games Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover

Miami largely won Game 1 on offense, but the Heat are quite strong on the defensive end. The Heat are giving up fewer than 1.12 points per possession in the postseason, with opponents shooting only 33.9% from 3-point range. Miami generated 12 steals in Game 1, and the Heat are leading the 2023 NBA playoffs in points off turnovers (20.5 per game). That comes after Miami finished in the top four in the regular season in points allowed in the paint, fast break points allowed, turnover creation, defensive rebound rate and second-chance points allowed.

On offense, the Heat scored 126.8 points per 100 possessions in Game 1, and Miami shot 16-31 from 3-point range with 54% shooting from the field. The Heat are making almost 38% of 3-point attempts in the playoffs, and Butler is on a heater, averaging 31.5 points per game in the playoffs after a 35-point showing in the series opener. See which team to pick here.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston's offensive capabilities were on full display in Game 1, even in what became a disappointing loss. The Celtics are scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in the 2023 NBA playoffs, and Boston can put five shooters on the floor together at any time. Boston is also strong on defense, though, and that brings a strong baseline. The Celtics are yielding only 1.12 points per possession in the playoffs after finishing second in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

Boston is averaging 6.5 blocks per game, most in the East during the playoffs, and opponents are generating only 19.3 free throw attempts and 41.7 points in the paint per game against the Celtics. The Celtics are also allowing only 45% shooting to playoff opponents, and Boston led the NBA in defensive rebound rate during the 2022-23 season, grabbing almost 75% of available rebounds after missed shots from an opponent. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with four players projected to score more than 20 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.