Christmas Day weather forecast promises sunshine for most of ...

With only seven more sleeps until Christmas, we are now close enough to get a reasonably accurate picture of the day's weather conditions across the country.

And while the Bureau of Meteorology will not release its first official forecast until later today, for a special day like Christmas, the ABC has analysed the latest weather modelling and is willing to reveal the forecast early, including likely temperatures for our major cities.

So what will the atmosphere deliver this year for Christmas?

It is a merry outlook for most, with a distinctive lack of rain-producing low-pressure systems, troughs or cold fronts appearing on the charts across the country.

In other words, the forecast is looking dry and sunny on Christmas Day for about 90 per cent of the country.

Most of Australia's major cities are looking dry this Christmas Day. (ABC News)

The only area where significant rain could fall is the northern tropics, however, even there precipitation should be in the form of isolated showers and storms — far from the monsoon drenchings that can arrive in late December.

As an added bonus, there is little risk of a cyclone.

But while skies are looking clear and bright, Australia is a big country with variable temperatures, and extreme heat is likely in the interior on December 25, before it engulfs south-eastern states on Boxing Day.

The general pattern currently being predicted by models next week is a hot and dry air mass should descend over central and southern Australia between Tuesday and Thursday, ensuring our capitals are mostly rain free on Christmas Day.

Darwin is the most likely capital to receive rain. And of the rest, only Perth, Hobart and Brisbane are at perhaps very slight risk of a light shower. No models are currently forecasting rain anywhere near Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide.

The modelling shows a distinct lack of rain around Australia on Christmas Day. (ABC News)

However, dry weather does not necessarily mean pleasant weather, especially as we approach the peak of a hot Australian summer, so how warm are the capitals looking?

Here is a current breakdown of the likely weather on Christmas Day.

Average Christmas maximum: 27 degrees Celsius.

2024 Christmas forecast: Sunny and 33C.

Adelaide is likely to be the warmer than average and the hottest southern capital, with a high well above 30C thanks to a hot air mass descending south from the interior.

Typically for December, there is little chance of rain.

Average Christmas maximum: 30C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Partly cloudy and 28C.

Brisbane should enjoy a relatively pleasant Christmas, with onshore winds keeping the temperature below 30C but also supplying the moisture for a few patches of cloud, although there is only a slight risk of a shower.

Average Christmas maximum: 27C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Sunny and 30C.

Christmas Day is looking warm and sunny thanks to a high-pressure system near south-east Australia.

Early signs show December 26 could bring temperatures above 40C. (ABC News: Kevin Nguyen)

Average Christmas maximum: 33C.

2024 Christmas forecast: A chance of showers/storms and 33C.

While showers and thunderstorms are possible because it is the wet season, the risk of prolonged rain is minimal this year as the monsoon trough should remain to the north.

Average Christmas maximum: 22C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Partly cloudy and 21C.

Cold fronts may be sliding past Tasmania's south coast around Christmas, so some cloud is likely but rain should be restricted to western parts of the state.

Average Christmas maximum: 25C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Mostly sunny and 25C.

Melbourne is probably the trickiest forecast this Christmas due to a switch from southerly winds to northerly winds between December 24 and 26.

The exact timing of the wind reversal will determine the temperature on December 25 but expect a rapid rise between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day.

A cool change should arrive in Perth on Christmas Eve. (ABC News: Kenith Png)

Average Christmas maximum: 29C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Partly cloudy and 25C with a slight risk of a shower.

Hot weather leading up to Christmas should end when a cool change arrives on Christmas Eve.

The change may even bring a light shower or two, but I would not cancel your outdoor plans.

Long-term average: 26C.

2024 Christmas forecast: Mostly sunny and 27C.

Christmas Day is looking dry and sunny thanks to a high-pressure system near south-east Australia.

The western suburbs should be at least a few degrees warmer than the city.

Extreme heat is likely across the western and central interior on December 25. (ABC News)

While most Australian capitals will enjoy a relatively pleasant Christmas (before a heatwave arrives on Boxing Day), Santa is set to arrive in a scorching hot outback.

The sweaty Christmas conditions will be the result of a broad mass of very hot and dry air from northern WA (Australia's heat engine) spreading east into central Australia on December 25.

Maximums currently have the potential to exceed 40C from western Queensland and western SA through to the Pilbara, peaking above 45C in south-east WA.

Northerly winds are then set to rapidly carry the extreme heat to south-eastern states on Boxing Day. 

And while eight days out is pushing the limits for developing a precise forecast, the early signs are that December 26 may see temperatures above 40C as far south as the Victorian coastline.