Projecting the College Football Playoff top 25 after Week 14 - ESPN

The 13-member selection committee will compose its penultimate ranking Tuesday with the bulk of contenders having completed their regular seasons, which means any big rises or drops will reveal how the league title games might complete the puzzle.

And there will be movement this week -- starting at the top.

There was no bigger impact than Ohio State's shocking home loss to unranked Michigan, but Miami's loss to Syracuse catapulted Clemson into the ACC championship game, and Clemson's loss to South Carolina boosted the Gamecocks' résumé.

Was South Carolina's win enough to overcome head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss? Were there enough upsets to help three-loss Alabama? How far will Ohio State and Miami fall?

Here's a look at the weekly prediction of what the top 25 might look like Tuesday. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day (that's coming next week). This remains a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point and how the committee has already evaluated them.

The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking and is also listed below. Remember, the top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

Jump to: Ranking | Bracket

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)

Why they could be here: THIS is what a CFP lock looks like. The Ducks are the only team to finish the regular season undefeated and have earned the selection committee's undisputed No. 1 ranking. Oregon is heading to the Big Ten title game, where it will face Penn State, and win or lose, Oregon will earn a spot in the historic 12-team field. Oregon is No. 1 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, beat Ohio State and Michigan in its first season in the Big Ten and could have a win against the Mountain West Conference champion, Boise State.

Path to the playoff: They're in. A win in the Big Ten title game should result in the No. 1 overall seed.

2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)

Why they could be here: Texas will move up after Ohio State lost to Michigan and the Longhorns beat rival Texas A&M. Texas will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, with a chance to avenge its Oct. 19 home loss to the Bulldogs. As the selection committee's top one-loss team, Texas will earn a spot in the CFP either as the SEC champion or a two-loss runner-up. If Texas falls to Georgia again, it will drop behind the Bulldogs but probably stay ahead of two-loss Ohio State, assuming the SEC's top two teams are ranked ahead of the Buckeyes on Tuesday. Texas will likely still have a first-round home game as one of the teams seeded 5 through 8.

Path to the playoff: They're in. A win over Georgia in the SEC title game will lock them into one of the top two seeds.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)

Why they could be here: Penn State gets promoted by default with Ohio State losing and the Nittany Lions now heading to the Big Ten championship game following their win against Maryland. They don't have any statement wins (their best win is against No. 23 Illinois), which will keep them from moving any higher, but they could drop down a spot if the committee decides the Irish have a better overall résumé in spite of the September home loss to Northern Illinois. According to ESPN Analytics, Penn State is No. 4 in Strength of Record and Notre Dame is No. 8. The Nittany Lions are also ranked significantly higher in ESPN's strength of schedule (No. 32 vs. No. 78).

Path to the playoff: The Nittany Lions can earn a first-round bye if they beat Oregon and win the Big Ten title, or they could earn a first-round home game as the league's runner-up if it's a respectable loss.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Irish would also get bumped up after Ohio State's loss, and 10 straight wins since the Sept. 7 home loss to Northern Illinois. The selection committee could continue to debate if Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Penn State. Four of their past six games have been either neutral-site or true road wins. Regardless, Penn State and Notre Dame are in strong positions to host first-round home games.

Path to the playoff: As an independent, Notre Dame's only path to the playoff is through one of seven at-large bids, which the Irish have secured. Any further movement will only occur as a result of teams moving around them in conference championship games, but the Irish aren't in jeopardy of losing their first-round home game. The highest they could be seeded on Selection Day is fifth because the top-four seeds are reserved for conference champions.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)

Why they could be here: After a wild, eight-overtime win against rival Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs should jump up two spots thanks to losses by both Ohio State and Miami. Georgia also has three wins against CFP top-25 opponents (Clemson, Texas and Tennessee), and their only two losses are to two top-15 teams in Alabama and Ole Miss. Those losses could be what keeps Georgia ahead of Ohio State this week in the committee meeting room, as the Buckeyes' home loss to Michigan is worse than either of Georgia's losses.

Path to the playoff: With Texas beating Texas A&M, it almost guarantees Georgia will get into the playoff regardless of the outcome in the SEC title game. If Georgia loses and finishes with three losses, it will still be able to claim a regular-season win against the SEC champs. Committee chair Warde Manuel said last week the committee would evaluate a Georgia win against Georgia Tech "how the game is played, how they win, just like we do every week compared to what others do around them, and then with the championship game and valuing both, we will see the outcome of the game, the way teams are playing. It's another data point to look at it for us to assess teams as it relates to how we do the final top 25 ranking because that's our focus."

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes suffered a bad home loss to five-loss, unranked, rival Michigan, but it's not going to knock them out of the playoff. Ohio State's safety net is two top-10 wins against Penn State and Indiana, the latter of which Ohio State is unlikely to fall behind. The Buckeyes should also stay ahead of Tennessee, which has one statement win, against Alabama. The bigger question is if Ohio State squandered its chance at a first-round home game. If the Buckeyes are ranked No. 7 or higher, they should still host a first-round game because they would be seeded in the necessary 5 through 8 spots. In this projection, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed and the final team awarded a first-round home game.

Path to the playoff: Ohio State lost its opportunity to play for the Big Ten championship, so the Buckeyes will wait and watch on Selection Day to see if they are ranked high enough to earn a first-round home game.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Vols avoided an upset at Vanderbilt and should remain in a safe spot but still behind Georgia, which they lost to.

Path to the playoff: Tennessee should be in the CFP, it's just a matter of where and if it will earn a first-round home game as one of the teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8. All it can do is wait and watch the SEC title game to see how Georgia fares and how it might impact Tennessee's final ranking.

8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)

Why they could be here: A lopsided win against Cal isn't going to change SMU's playoff position this week, but an ACC title on Saturday could. The Mustangs moved up one spot in the projection because of Miami falling below it. If the selection committee agrees with this ranking, SMU would now earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions.

Path to the playoff: SMU can clinch a spot in the CFP and a first-round bye with a win against Clemson in the ACC championship game. If the Mustangs lose a close game, it's not a guarantee that they will still earn one of the seven at-large bids, but they would have an argument. If SMU wins, Clemson is out.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers hammered rival Purdue, showing no signs of a letdown following their loss to Ohio State and getting back to dominating lesser opponents the way they did the bulk of the season. IU isn't going to jump SMU, though, after beating a 1-10 Purdue team. SMU, Indiana and Boise State should remain in the same order. Manuel last week said the committee has noticed "SMU has been playing really dominant football as of late," and that "Kevin Jennings is one of the dynamic quarterbacks in the country at the present time. So we just felt that SMU and their play on the field, they move ahead of Indiana," last week. Nothing happened to change that this week.

Path to the playoff: The Hoosiers are in the playoff as the Big Ten's fourth team behind Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State, but they might not be ranked high enough to earn a first-round home game. That could change if Clemson beats SMU, which would give the Hoosiers a last-minute boost.

10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Broncos have maintained their position in the playoff picture, despite the No. 82 schedule in the country, in large part because they simply keep winning and the committee has been wowed by running back Ashton Jeanty. Boise State has won 10 straight games since losing 37-34 at Oregon on Sept. 7. "We value how the teams play, and in the end, the scoreboard matters," Manuel said. "What they have done, the only loss they have is a very close three-point loss at Oregon at the beginning of the year, and they've run the table since then." The Broncos are also ranked No. 11 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric with wins against Washington State (8-4) and No. 22 UNLV.

Path to the playoff: Boise State is one win away from solidifying its spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff. The Broncos will play UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game on Friday. The only question is if the Broncos can hang onto the first-round bye as one of the committee's four highest-ranked conference champions, or if the Big 12 champion will ultimately jump them.

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Canes have lost two of their last three games and played themselves out of the ACC title game, but maybe not out of the CFP. The selection committee has had a lot of respect for the Canes, particularly offensively with the star-power of quarterback Cam Ward. The committee will also note that both of Miami's losses were close -- something committee chair Warde Manuel has already pointed out when talking about the Canes' loss to Georgia Tech. Much like Indiana, Miami's eye test in the room has outweighed its résumé, as the Canes don't have any wins against ranked opponents. What they do have is one fewer loss than the SEC teams ranked below.

Path to the playoff: If Miami is ranked no lower than No. 11 following Saturday's loss at Syracuse, there's a good chance the Canes are safe. They lost any possibility of a first-round bye, though, and are out of range to host a first-round home game.

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)

Why they could be here: One of the big questions in the committee meeting room will be if South Carolina's win against Clemson was enough for the Gamecocks to overcome head-to-head losses to both Alabama and Ole Miss. Last week, though, the committee chose to honor the head-to-head results because "they're really similar teams." When that happens and they have similar records, there is a heavy lean into the head-to-head result. The Tide moved up after Clemson lost to South Carolina, but if the selection committee still has Miami in, Alabama will ultimately be out. Alabama's win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl isn't going to give the Tide the boost it needs, and Alabama is still struggling in the room to overcome losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.

Path to the playoff: Unless Alabama moves up, it will be knocked out of the No. 12 spot to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Alabama's best shot at moving up would be to have Clemson win the ACC, but that doesn't guarantee that SMU would drop out as the ACC runner-up. Of all of the teams ranked above, though, SMU has the greatest chance of dropping behind Alabama if it doesn't win its conference. The other way is simply if Miami falls out of the playoff picture on Tuesday, and the committee values a three-loss SEC team more.

Projecting the rest of the top 25 13. Ole Miss | 14. South Carolina | 15. Arizona State 16. Iowa State | 17. Clemson | 18. BYU 19. Missouri | 20. UNLV | 21. Colorado 22. Illinois | 23. Syracuse | 24. Memphis | 25. Texas A&M

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Texas (SEC champ) No. 3 SMU (ACC champ) No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 20 and 21

No. 12 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 5 Penn State No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Quarterfinal games

At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Arizona State/No. 5 Penn State winner vs. No. 4 Boise State No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 SMU No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Texas No. 9 Tennessee/No. 8 Ohio State winner vs. No. 1 Oregon