How 2024 exit polls compare with the 2020 and 2016 elections
President Donald Trump is projected to win multiple key battleground states and is poised to clinch the presidency for a second time. There are some key takeaways in how the country’s politics have shifted over three straight elections with Trump on the ballot.
CNN’s exit poll results from 2016, 2020 and 2024 reveal how a sour economy was a drag on Vice President Kamala Harris, how she failed to drive an uptick in support among women even though there was an uptick in support for abortion rights, and how Latino men, in particular, gravitated toward Trump.
CNN's exit polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year's election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the election themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they're most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That's particularly true before the exit poll numbers are adjusted to match final election results.
Exit poll data for 2024 will continue to update and will automatically reflect in the charts below.
Women lean toward Harris, and men lean toward Trump Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpGender
Harris’ edge among women this year did not exceed either President Joe Biden’s or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s, a troubling sign for the vice president given that she tried to mobilize female voters on the issue of abortion. Trump maintained an edge among men.
Latino men embraced Trump Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpRace/ethnicity and gender
Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump since 2016. This year, Latino men broke in his direction for the first time. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won them in 2024. Latina women still favored Harris, but by smaller margins than they supported either Clinton or Biden.
Harris maintained strong leads among Black men and women. Trump’s lead among White men shrank.
The educational divide grows Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpEducation, race and gender
White voters without college degrees have long represented Trump’s base of support, something that has remained constant. A shift has occurred among White college-educated voters. They narrowly backed Trump in 2016, but Harris won them by about 10 points in 2024, a split driven by both men and women. Harris won White women with a college degree by about 20 points — an improvement over both Biden and Clinton. Meanwhile, Harris lost some support among voters of color of all education levels.
Younger voters shifted toward Trump, while he lost ground with senior voters Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpAge
Democrats lost some support among the youngest voters, a group that overwhelmingly votes for them. But Harris also made gains among the oldest voters, a group that traditionally leans Republican. It’s an interesting shift.
Trump regained power in rural America Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpWhere voters live
While Trump lost some support in rural areas in 2020, he returned to full strength there in 2024. Cities remained solidly Democratic. The suburbs stayed the evenly split battleground that decides elections.
Voters are sour on the economy Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpView of the economy
Voters were about evenly split in 2020 on whether the economy was in good shape or not, an incredible thing given the raging pandemic that was affecting Americans’ lives that year. In 2024, about two-thirds of voters said the economy was in bad shape. That shift in sentiment benefited Trump.
More people report their family has fallen behind Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpFamily’s financial situation today
It makes sense that partisans would say their position has or has not improved based on whether the person they support is in the White House. This year, there’s a big shift. In 2020, just about one-fifth of voters said they were doing worse than four years before. This year, it’s nearly half of voters who say they are doing worse than four years ago. Trump won them overwhelmingly.
More Americans support abortion rights Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpAbortion should be:
One story these charts don’t fully tell is how the abortion conversation has changed. In 2016, Roe v. Wade guaranteed every American woman a constitutional right to an abortion. In 2024, that federal right is gone, taken away by a conservative majority Trump helped seat on the Supreme Court. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In 2024, it’s about two-thirds of Americans who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But they didn’t necessarily tie that support to their vote for president. Nearly half of people who say abortion should be legal in most cases supported Trump.
Trump made inroads with moderates Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpIdeology
Liberals and conservatives have moved even further into their partisan corners during the Trump years. Moderates still favored the Democratic nominee in 2024, but by a smaller margin than in 2020.
Trump is the dominant figure in the election Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpVote for president mainly:
People who say they cast their vote more in support of their chosen candidate than against their opponent split for Trump, a signal of his popularity among his supporters. Those motivated more by opposition were largely in Harris’ camp. Overall, roughly three-quarters of voters said they were mostly voting to support their candidate, not to oppose their rival.
Trump engaged new voters Voted for the Democrat Voted for TrumpFirst-time voters
Trump’s campaign strategy was built around motivating low-propensity voters who don’t usually take part in the political process. That paid off because there was a dramatic swing between 2020, when Biden won first-time voters, and 2024, when Trump won them. But there’s important context in the fact that a smaller portion of voters reported casting their first ballot in 2024 than in 2020.
CNN exit polls are a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. They were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 279 polling locations. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted between October 24 and November 2, in person at 27 early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 22,914 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.
