England vs Italy: Prediction and Preview | The Analyst

We look ahead to this European Championship qualifier at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday night with our England vs Italy prediction and preview.

● The Opta supercomputer predicts an England win in this game against Italy, with a 58.9% chance of that happening.

● England have won their last 12 European Championship qualifiers at home with an aggregate score of 47-4.

● Italy haven’t lost an away European Championship qualifier since September 2006, and are currently on a 22-game unbeaten run in such matches.

● Following their 2-1 win in March, England are looking for consecutive wins over Italy for only the second time, also achieving that with wins in 1948 and 1949.

● Italy are unbeaten in their last five away matches against England (W2 D3) since a 2-0 defeat in a World Cup qualifier in 1977.

● England have won their last 12 home European Championship qualifiers by an aggregate score of 47-4.

● A player has scored a hat-trick in four of their last six on home soil – Raheem Sterling versus Czechia (March 2019), Harry Kane against Bulgaria (September 2019) and Montenegro (November 2019) and Bukayo Saka versus North Macedonia (June 2023).

● Italy haven’t lost any of their last 22 away European Championship qualifiers (W17 D5) since a 3-1 defeat to France in September 2006. If they avoid defeat here, they would set a new record for unbeaten away Euros qualifiers – Romania also had a 22-game run between 1991 and 2007.

● England have suffered just one defeat in their last 62 major tournament qualifiers (World Cup/Euros), a 2-1 reverse away at Czechia in October 2019 (W49 D12). At home, the Three Lions are unbeaten in their last 35 such games (W31 D4) since losing to 3-2 to Croatia in November 2007 under Steve McClaren.

● Should Declan Rice or Harry Kane score for England in this match, they could emulate Tommy Lawton in scoring in consecutive appearances for the Three Lions against Italy, with Lawton the only player to ever do so, with his goals coming nine years and three days apart between 1939 and 1948.

● Harry Kane has been directly involved in at least one goal in 17 of his 18 appearances in European Championship qualifying for England (20 goals, 8 assists), including the last 14 in a row. The only game he didn’t score or assist in was against Estonia in October 2015.

● Italy manager Luciano Spalletti’s previous game at Wembley came while in charge of Inter Milan, losing 1-0 in November 2018 against Spurs in a UEFA Champions League match. The last four Italy managers to face England for the first time have all drawn, with Giovanni Trappatoni the last manager to beat the Three Lions in their first game against them (1-0 in November 2000).

England defeated Italy away in the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples back in March thanks to goals from midfielder Declan Rice and Harry Kane. Kane’s goal from the penalty spot saw him become the all-time leading men’s goalscorer for England with it his 54th goal for the Three Lions.

Mateo Retegui scored a consolation goal for Italy in the second half on his international debut, but England held out to win the game and start their Euro 2024 qualification campaign with all three points thanks to their first away win in Italy since 1961. This victory came despite a late red card for Manchester United defender Luke Shaw.

This was only Italy’s fourth ever home defeat in a European Championship qualifier and their first since losing 3-2 to Denmark in September 1999.

The last time these two sides met at Wembley Stadium was in the Euro 2020 final. After a 1-1 draw the game went to a penalty shootout, which Italy won 3-2.

In group stage qualification for Euro 2024, Italy are currently second in Group C, three points behind England and ahead of Ukraine on goal difference. They have dropped just two points in their four games since losing the opening match to England in March. After drawing 1-1 away in North Macedonia in Luciano Spalletti’s first game in charge on 9 September, the Azzurri have enjoyed qualifying wins over both Ukraine (2-1) and Malta (4-0).

England have won four and drawn one of their qualifiers so far, only dropping points to Ukraine in their 1-1 draw in Wroclaw, Poland in September.

The English defeated Australia in an international friendly on Friday night at Wembley thanks to a single Ollie Watkins goal.

The Opta supercomputer predicts that the most likely result in this match is an England win. Gareth Southgate’s side prevailed on 58.9% of the pre-match supercomputer simulations, with 26.5% ending in a draw and Italy winning just 14.7% of the time.

England: Sam Johnstone, Jordan Pickford, Aaron Ramsdale, Levi Colwill, Lewis Dunk, Fikayo Tomori, Kieran Trippier, Harry Maguire, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Marc Guéhi, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Gallagher, Jordan Henderson, Declan Rice, Kalvin Phillips, Jude Bellingham, Jack Grealish, Ollie Watkins, James Maddison, Jarrod Bowen, Marcus Rashford, Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Eddie Nketiah.

Coach: Gareth Southgate

Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alex Meret, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Cristiano Biraghi, Destiny Udogie, Matteo Darmian, Gianluca Mancini, Francesco Acerbi, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Gatti, Manuel Locatelli, Giacomo Bonaventura, Bryan Cristante, Davide Frattesi, Nicolò Barella, Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori, Domenico Berardi, Riccardo Orsolini, Stephan El Shaarawy.

Coach: Luciano Spalletti

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our new football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.