Did 'Jat and Jaat' cost Congress Haryana?

Haryana Election result 2024: With Bhupinder Hooda having his way in the Congress, the party largely banked upon the Jat community to thwart the BJP. However, the move seems to have alienated the Dalits as Kumari Selja stayed away from campaigning.

Haryana election results 2024: Congress Haryana heavyweights Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari Selja

Haryana Election result 2024: An overt focus on wooing the Jat community, overreliance on former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and his tussle with Dalit leader Kumari Selja are being seen as the major factors that derailed the Congress's hopes of returning to power after a 10-year hiatus.

With Hooda having his way in the Congress, the party largely banked upon the Jat community to thwart the BJP from securing a record third consecutive term. However, the move seems to have alienated the Dalits and non-Jats, who were starting to lean towards Congress due to its aggressive push for social justice.

The BJP, defying exit poll predictions, bettered its 2019 and 2014 tally and returned to power in Haryana by winning 48 seats. The Congress also improved its tally by seven seats from 2019, bagging 37 seats.

The BJP rose to power in Haryana majorly on the support of non-Jat communities. Its candidate list this time, too, was dominated by OBC and Brahmin candidates. On the other hand, Hooda, the Congress's Jat face, ensured tickets for most of his loyalists from the community, much to the chagrin of his detractors, Sirsa MP Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala.

The Congress high command also firmly backed Hooda. At least 70 candidates fielded by the Congress were supported by the Hooda camp. His rival, Kumari Selja, could manage just nine tickets for her loyalists.

A fuming Selja, who wields considerable influence among the Dalit community, stayed away from campaigning for the most part and even skipped the manifesto launch event. She was already miffed with the Congress leadership after her demand to enter the Assembly poll fray was nixed.

The ruling BJP eagerly capitalised on the divide, with Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar even asking Selja to quit Congress and join the saffron party.

The division in the Congress camp was visible from the beginning of the year itself. While Bhupinder Singh Hooda led a 'Ghar Ghar Congress' campaign to reach out to the voters, Randeep Surjewala, Kumari Selja and Kiran Choudhry -- largely perceived as the anti-Hooda camp -- launched a parallel 'Congress Sandesh Yatra' campaign.

While Jats constitute 26-28 percent of Haryana's population, the state has 17 Scheduled Caste (SC)-reserved seats. This means that a party winning more SC seats will have better chances of crossing the majority mark.

The Congress seems to have neglected this fact as it overwhelmingly banked on the Jat community, which has huge political dominance in central Haryana, to stop the BJP juggernaut and neglected the Ahirwal region in south Haryana.

The Ahirwal belt, spanning Gurgaon, Rewari and Mahendergarh, has largely remained loyal to the BJP since 2014 and the party is on course to bag 20 of the 28 seats in the region.

In fact, in the lead up to the polls, the BJP actively worked to consolidate non-Jat voters (commonly referred to as the 36 biradaris) while sensing a division among the Dalits.

With the Jannayak Janta Party and the Indian National Lok Dal stitching alliances with Dalit-focused political parties, the Aazad Samaj Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party respectively, the Dalit votes seem to have got divided, benefitting the BJP.

Moreover, the BJP also put its focus on rural constituencies, leveraging the organisational reach and grassroots presence of the RSS to gain traction in these areas. From September, the RSS launched a rural voter outreach programme, deploying 150 volunteers to each district.

Both the factors helped the BJP in denting the Congress's rural voter base. This despite the Congress leading in 45 rural Assembly segments as per the Lok Sabha poll results.