Hurricane Milton: First Major Hurricane With Direct Tampa Landfall ...
Just days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend region of the Florida Gulf Coast and subsequently flooded much of the southeastern U.S., another tropical system formed and is heading for the States.
On Sunday, Oct. 5, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Milton. Milton strengthened to a hurricane on Oct. 6 before becoming a major hurricane on Oct. 7 over the Gulf of Mexico’s warm sea surface temperatures.
The NHC 11 a.m. EDT forecast on Monday, Oct. 7 shows that Milton will travel east-southeast across the southern Gulf of Mexico before speeding up and turning east-northeast, with Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg in its path (Figure 1).
Hurricane Milton followed a track further to the south than originally anticipated, and interactions with the Yucatan Peninsula could still affect the storm. A more southerly track also has ramifications for the eventual Florida landfall location.
Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).
Hurricane Risk Report
Source: National Hurricane Center, 2024
There should be very little dry air or vertical wind shear to hamper development as Milton begins to turn east-northeast. For the next 24 hours, Hurricane Milton will continue to strengthen. Starting about 24 hours before landfall, Milton will enter an area of less favorable conditions, which could weaken the storm before landfall. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding how much weakening will occur.
As of 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, Oct. 7, the NHC forecast shows Milton making landfall with maximum sustained winds of 126 mph. This would make Hurricane Milton a Category 3 tropical cyclone.
There is still uncertainty in the exact landfall location and intensity. However, a major hurricane landfall in a populated region of Florida like Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg could become one of the most damaging storms in recent years.
The potential for extreme winds and devastating storm surge is high, especially given the shape of Tampa Bay and the shallow waters off the coast, both of which could exacerbate coastal flooding.
A landfall north of Tampa Bay would be the worst-case scenario from a storm surge flooding perspective, as the onshore winds on the southeastern side of the hurricane would be flowing right into the bay. If Hurricane Milton makes landfall further south, storm surge flooding might be less in Tampa Bay, but it would be a significant hazard in Sarasota, Punta Gorda, or Ft. Meyers.
1921: A Historical Precedent for Hurricane MiltonThe last hurricane to directly hit the Tampa Bay area was over 100 years ago.
The 1921 Hurricane, also known as the Tarpon Springs Hurricane, struck Florida just north of Tampa Bay in late October 1921. The storm made landfall in Tarpon Springs (Figure 2) on Oct. 25 as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of around 115 mph. It caused significant destruction.
Figure 2: The 1921 Hurricane made landfall over Tarpon Springs, Florida, which is north of Tampa Bay, as a Category 3 storm.Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024
The storm generated a surge up to 11 feet in Tampa Bay (Figure 3), inundating coastal areas and causing extensive flooding. The property damage in Tarpon Springs and surrounding areas was severe, with homes, businesses, and infrastructure heavily affected.
The estimated cost of the damage was approximately $10 million at the time, which would be significantly higher today when adjusted for inflation.
Figure 3: Modeled storm surge flooding footprint of the 1921 Hurricane. A landfall north of Tampa Bay would bring catastrophic flooding to the bay.Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024
More significant than inflation is the exposure growth in the area. Since 1921, Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg, and the surrounding cities have grown significantly.
Currently, the Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg area has a diverse array of buildings, ranging from historic landmarks to modern skyscrapers. This region, which includes the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater, as well as surrounding municipalities, reflects significant urban development over the past decades.
Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg have a mix of residential buildings, ranging from single-family homes to high-rise condominiums. In the city of Tampa alone, there are approximately 157,000 housing units. St. Petersburg adds around 109,000 housing units to the total. When considering the broader Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida metropolitan area, including other parts of Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco counties, the number of residential buildings increases to 1.5 million.
The commercial real estate sector in the Tampa Bay area comprises numerous office buildings, retail spaces, hotels, and industrial properties. In Tampa, notable commercial districts such as downtown, Westshore, and Ybor City contribute to a dense concentration of commercial buildings. St. Petersburg’s downtown and waterfront areas are similarly rich in commercial properties, including several notable office towers and retail centers.
Future Hurricane Milton UpdatesCoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to watch Hurricane Milton. An update will be available on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024.
Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Hurricane Milton or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
Hurricane Risk Report
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