UFC 309 Fight Card: Jon Jones Vs. Stipe Miocic Pick, Predictions

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic face off during the UFC 309 press ... [+] conference at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC

The next fight card on the UFC schedule takes place this Saturday, November 16, when the promotion visits Madison Square Garden in New York City for UFC 309.

The UFC 309 pay-per-view card is headlined by a title fight between current UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former two-time UFC heavyweight kingpin Stipe Miocic. The evening’s co-main event is a rematch between former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and three-time Bellator titleholder Michael Chandler. Before those two scraps, UFC middleweight contender Bo Nickal looks to continue his charge up the rankings against Paul Craig.

The UFC 309 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 309 Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane. The UFC heavyweight title was left vacant when Francis Ngannou departed the promotion as a free agent to sign with the PFL in early 2023.

The UFC initially booked Jones vs. Miocic for UFC 295. UFC CEO Dana White announced that fight in July 2023, saying at the time, “This is the fight that Jon Jones wanted. It’s the fight that Stipe wanted. It is a legacy fight for both of these guys.”

Jones had two stints as the UFC light heavyweight champion. He had eight title defenses in his first reign as champ, and three defenses in his second run as the UFC 205-pound titleholder.

The Jones vs. Miocic fight fell apart when Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle in training. With Jones off the card, the UFC opted to book an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall won that bout, and the interim title, with a 69-second knockout.

Miocic (20-4) has not stepped into the Octagon since he lost the title to Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.

Miocic is a two-time UFC heavyweight champ. He is the only fighter to defend the crown three times in a single run as champ. He achieved that in his first title reign. He defended the title once in his second run with the belt, which ended with his loss to Ngannou.

With Jones healed from surgery on his pec and shoulder, that contest is fast approaching. Barring a last minute injury or illness, the Jones vs. Miocic fight looks like it will take place as scheduled at UFC 309.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 08: Jon Jones celebrates his victory over Dominick Reyes in their light ... [+] heavyweight championship bout during the UFC 247 event at Toyota Center on February 08, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic - What’s At Stake?

The winner of the Jones vs. Miocic matchup could face interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in their next outing. However, there has been some talk that no matter who leaves Madison Square Garden with the title, that the champion will retire with the belt in hand.

During the lead up to this fight, Jones has said he will not face Aspinall in a title unification bout. However, White made it clear that if Jones wants to continue his career with the UFC that he will fight Aspinall in a title unification bout should he leave MSG with the UFC heavyweight crown.

“He’s not fighting (UFC light heavyweight champion Alex) Pereira,” White told Jim Rome when asked about Jones’ plans for the future. “(Pereira) was a middleweight that moved up to light heavyweight. He’s also a kickboxer who has done very, very well in MMA. His wrestling isn’t even near the level of Jon Jones and Jon Jones is way bigger than him.

“If Jon Jones wants to fight again after Saturday night, he will fight Tom Aspinall.”

“Jon’s weird in how he deals with this type of stuff,” White added. “Like he’ll show up for a fight like this, he’ll be prepared mentally, physically, and everything else and then when the fight’s over, he sort of goes and disappears and he wants to challenge himself again and Tom Aspinall is there. He’s doing the whole ‘he doesn’t deserve it’ … but Jon when was 23 years old and he became the youngest champion ever, somebody gave him the opportunity for greatness. I think Jon will eventually come back and face Tom Aspinall.

“But if he decides Saturday night that’s it, it’s over, it’s his right to make that decision. What this guy has accomplished, nobody else has even come close to accomplishing and he’s the greatest of all time. So we’ll see.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones reacts with UFC President Dana White onstage during the ... [+] UFC 309 press conference at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC UFC 309: Jon Jones on Stipe Miocic

“I think actually Daniel Cormier is probably the most skilled (opponent I’ve faced). His Olympic level, wrestling, his dirty boxing, his boxing, But Stipe's beat, Daniel Cormier. Stipe, he deserves to be here, man. He can wrestle. He always comes, lean and in shape. He has great cardio. And he has that right hand, you know, where there's the straight right, overhand right or the right uppercut. That's his real weapon. That's his ticket. We're very aware of that, and we're prepared for that.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones reacts during the UFC 309 press conference at The ... [+] Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC UFC 309: Stipe Miocic on Jon Jones

"It's definitely a different ball game when it comes to heavyweight. You've got bigger guys, (they) hit harder. A lot of things are different. We'll see. I have some things up my sleeve, too, just like he does."

"I definitely watched film on him.”

"He does throw different stuff at different times. But also he does have tendencies, like everyone else. You've just got to exploit them."

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 14: Stipe Miocic speaks during the UFC 309 press conference at The ... [+] Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Betting Odds

When the opening odds for UFC 309 were announced, Jones was the -298 betting favorite over Miocic, who came in at +240. The betting lines have shifted a great deal since then. Today, Jones is the -700 favorite and Miocic is the +400 betting underdog.

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Predictions and Pick

Because this is a heavyweight fight, a knockout victory for either fighter is a possibility. With the betting odds Miocic has, it’s not out of line to look at the betting value and pick him to win via knockout.

However, the betting pick for the UFC 309 main event is Jon Jones. Unless he takes Miocic lightly and is looking too far ahead, which is a possibility, Jones should win at Madison Square Garden. The pick is Jones via decision.