Karl-Anthony Towns Needs To Take More Threes - Zone Coverage

Timberwolves

Photo Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Finch joined JJ Redick on The Old Man & the Three podcast in early September. During their hour-long segment, Finch touched on Karl-Anthony Towns’ role heading into the 2023-24 season and what his pairing would look like next to a healthy Rudy Gobert.

“There was a big concern for me. I didn’t want just to turn him into a 2-guard, play him in the corner, and tell him to take more threes,” Finch explained. “I do think he can increase his three-point rate, but he has so much success driving against fives. I think now he has to realize that he needs to shoot over more fours.”

For Towns to work alongside Gobert, the Kentucky Wildcat must continue to live behind the three-point line. That would open up driving lanes for Anthony Edwards and pick-and-roll opportunities for Gobert. But as Finch told Reddick, KAT is valuable with the ball in his hands, operating at the nail and low block. Therefore, the Wolves can’t treat him as an off-ball two-guard whose only offensive responsibility is to attempt mostly triples.

Fourty-two games into the season, having one of the least productive three-point shooting seasons of his career. Perhaps relatedly, the Timberwolves have the league’s 19th-best offensive rating (114.3). Minnesota’s defense has kept them as the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed for about 12 weeks. But the offense will eventually need to improve. Could KAT help improve some of the Wolves’ offensive issues by shooting more threes? Some may answer with a resounding yes, but the answer is not that black and white.

Towns is attempting 4.7 threes per game this season, his lowest total since the 2018-19 season, the first year he started living behind the line. He has also attempted 208 triples. Anthony Edwards (248) and Mike Conley (219) have shot and made more three-pointers than him.

Here is a look at KAT’s shot chart from the 2018-19 season to the 2022-23 season compared to his current via Cleaning the Glass, along with some 3-point shooting tracking data:

2023-24:

Above-the-break: 79/181 (43.6 FG%) Corners: 4/11 (2% of his total shots) 3-point frequency: 28% (3rd lowest since 2018) Corner 3-point frequency: 2% (career-low excluding rookie season) Rest of floor frequency (paint and mid-range): 71% (2nd highest since 2018)

All of the stats above are before Monday’s game.

Towns isn’t attempting nearly as many threes as he has in the past. When he does, they are almost exclusively at the top of the key from above the break. There are a few reasons for this. One is that KAT is no longer Minnesota’s No. 1 scoring option, which naturally leads to fewer opportunities to score. The other reason is the sets Finch runs and involves Towns in and how frequently he runs them.

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Surprisingly, a good chunk of KAT’s above-the-break threes this season are a product of his spacing off the ball. In years past, he was involved in several pick-and-pop plays with either Jeff Teague, Tyus Jones, or D’Angelo Russell. With Edwards and Gobert in the mix now, things are slightly more complicated. Finch has been running the offense through Gobert quite often, which makes sense – he is one of the best screensetters and PnR threats in the league. The most effective play in the coaching staff’s pocket is empty-side PnRs between the ball handler and Gobert.

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In the example above, Ant and Rudy engage a PnR with Towns spaced off the ball in the opposite corner. Edwards makes a great read, stutter-stepping, pulling Jaren Jackson Jr. out of the restricted area, and tossing an easy lob to Gobert.

What makes this already great play that much more lethal and hard to guard is having KAT in the corner. If his defender rotates into the paint to play weakside help on the roller, a wide-open corner triple would be produced for Towns, precisely what we saw in the second quarter of Saturday’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

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KAT has attempted eight triples from the left corner and three from the right, connecting on four of those 11 attempts. It’s not often that Karl finds himself waiting in the corner and not engaged offensively. But when he is, Gobert is often setting a screen somewhere else. In that situation, the Wolves are using KAT as a safety valve away from the play, which is incredibly valuable.

Looking back at what Finch told Reddick in September, the Wolves must strike a balance in how they use Towns. Too much of anything is a negative, especially for the Wolves. They have struggled to implement a structured offense during prolonged stretches, resulting in congested plays and head-scratching decisions.

If Minnesota’s coaching staff wants to find a way to produce more three-point attempts for KAT, the answer may be sitting in a recipe the team wrote against the Detroit Pistons last week.

Towns went 5-of-5 from beyond the arc in Motown, tying a then-season-high. Of those makes, two were with him involved directly in a PnP set with either Conley or Edwards. The other three had him off the ball, yet still involved with the play in some capacity.

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KAT’s success from beyond the arc opened up the rest of the floor for himself and his teammates. Towns and Edwards finished with 27 points, Gobert with 19, and Jaden McDaniels with 23. Take those numbers with a grain of salt; the Pistons are the worst defensive team in the league. Still, it’s evident that when the Wolves prioritize KAT in the middle of the floor, he creates good spacing and positive outcomes.

“I’m just feeling good and shooting the ball well,” Towns told reporters postgame. “Good rhythm, I’m just feeling good. I’m going to do whatever it takes for this team to win. Some days, there are going to be more threes, and some days, there are going to be more drives. It was one of those days to just mix it up.”

KAT has recently taken pride in conforming to what his team needs. Taking what the defense gives him and not forcing anything will remain paramount. However, we saw how important it is that the team prioritizes getting him more three-point attempts in high-leverage situations on Saturday night at Target Center.

Conley has been Minnesota’s best three-point shooter. The 36-year-old guard has connected on 44% of his 219 total three-point attempts and leads the team in threes made (96). He’s shooting 52% (32/61) from the corners, 41% (64/158) above the break and from the wings, and 44.8% (52/116) in catch-and-shoot situations. But Conley lost his reliable touch from beyond the arc against the Thunder, going a season-worst 1-of-9.

All of his three-point attempts were timely misses, especially late in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City closed the game on a 23-9 run, propelling it to a 102-97 win. The Wolves could not buy a bucket, going 3-of-13 from the floor in the fourth. Conley attempted only one triple in the frame. He knew his shot wasn’t falling, so he deferred most of his three-point looks to his teammates. Towns also had no success from deep in the fourth and didn’t attempt a triple.

Fans’ lasting memory from that game will be Minnesota’s fourth-quarter collapse, but the team had issues generating productive 3-point looks and offensive sets all night.

In the clip below, Naz Reid attacks into a very congested paint. As Jake Paynting pointed out in a recent YouTube video, an ineffective KAT post-up occurred before this. Kyle Anderson spaced himself in the corner so his defender could sag into the paint to prevent Towns from spinning and scoring. At the same time, Nickeil Alexander-Walker slipped into the paint, allowing the defense to double KAT and force him to pass the ball out.

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Once the ball was back in Edwards’ hands, Towns forced himself inside instead of engaging in a PnP or spacing in the corner. That took away Reid’s driving lane, resulting in one of the team’s 21 turnovers.

That one play exemplifies how a simple KAT PnP could solve a glaring offensive issue.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Minnesota’s following game against the Charlotte Hornets. Towns finished with a career-high and franchise-record 62 points on 21-of-35 from the floor and a season-high 10-of-15 from deep. He was prioritized early and often in the PnP game, which was great to see as the Hornets entered the game as a bottom-feeding defensive team. The Wolves managed to cough up the game in the fourth, 128-125, though. I won’t go any deeper than that to save you any more sorrow. Regardless of the final outcome, KAT had his best statistical game in his career, further providing a blueprint of success for him despite the team losing.

Before Monday’s game, the Timberwolves are 8-3 when Towns makes three or more triples, 6-1 when he makes four or more, and 3-0 when he connects on five. While his downtick in production from outside the arc isn’t necessarily bad, the results are evident. The more three-pointers KAT makes, the more likely Minnesota is to win. Finch and his staff must produce more threes for the Big Purr in moderation as the season progresses.