Kentucky Derby 2024: Late Saturday Odds, Best Bets, And Why ...

The Favorite, Airborne: Fierceness during the morning training at Churchill Downs on May 01, 2024 in ... [+] Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Race day at the 150th Kentucky Derby is in the old, fundamental ways not unlike the previous 149: Jitters in the stands and in the paddock, the attempts at some quiet race-readying, some sweat, a lot of hope. All sets of connections will be hoping most mightily for their horse to present his best self to the track and the populace this afternoon. None of them doing that will be more fervent in that hope than the connections surrounding Fierceness, easily the most talented horse of the twenty in today’s field, and one of the most unpredictable.

We have been grappling for weeks with the fact that it is a largely slow field for the Derby, with some few exceptions, namely, those sought out last weekend by the Churchill oddsmakers as the top favorites. In descending order of probability to win, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and then the second tier, Catching Freedom, Just A Touch, and Forever Young. It doesn’t make the betting any easier that the field’s slowness requires so much bottom-fishing, what with four horses at 50-1 in the morning line and four at 30-1, or almost half the field. But in addition to the fog, kickback and chaos those eight horses bring, it means that, judiciously and assiduously handicapped, there can be some really well-paying exotics.

But before we get into the minutia of how Dornoch’s break will affect Sierra Leone, here’s the refresher on the field:

Post Position, Trainer, Jockey, (Morning Line), Live Odds

1. Dornoch, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, (20-1), 21-1

2. Sierra Leone, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, (3-1), 5-1

3. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., (20-1), 16-1

4. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, (8-1), 8-1

5. Catalytic, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, (30-1), 32-1

6. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, (20-1), 22-1

7. Honor Marie, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, (20-1), 13-1

8. Just a Touch, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, (10-1), 10-1

9. T O Password, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, (30-1), 47-1

10. Forever Young, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, (10-1), 6-1

11. Track Phantom, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, (20-1), 41-1

12. West Saratoga, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, (50-1), 23-1

13. Endlessly, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, (30-1), 47-1

14. Domestic Product, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., (30-1), 28-1

15. Grand Mo the First, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, (50-1), 45-1

16. Fierceness, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, (5-2), 7-2

17. Stronghold, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, (20-1), 35-1

18. Resilience, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, (20-1), 29-1

19. Society Man, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, (50-1), 46-1

20.Epic Ride, John Ennis, Adam Beschizza, (50-1), 44-1

(Source: Churchill Downs, 5/4/24, Time: 6:56 p.m.)

Everybody, even such renowned handicappers such as the Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and the grandfather of them all, Andrew Beyer, has been wrestling for the last few weeks with the fact of the 150th Kentucky Derby’s chronically slow field. Parenthetically, it has been making pretty much everybody miss Muth, the talented Baffert-trained athlete who, along with his trainer, has suffered under Churchill Downs’ year-long extension of Bob Baffert’s ban from racing at Churchill or any Churchill-owned track. We shall see Muth a little bit later in the season, but it would have been splendid to see him come up against Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Them’s the breaks.

In the maintenance works of the last three weeks at Churchill, Just A Touch, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Forever Young have, in no particular order, put in more than respectable works, and they are all coming into themselves. Just A Touch fairly outshone his stablemate Forever Young at least once, and both are trained by the redoubtable Brad Cox. Cox has a more than solid shot at this Derby with these arrows in his quiver; they are second-tier runners in talent to Fierceness, but they have scads of ability, splendid, tactical jockeys and can perform. They are to be taken more than seriously and would spice up any exotic that you’d care to cook up.

For all his obvious talents — and despite the Secretariat-style 13-plus-length Florida Derby win — it remains a striking fact of this Derby just how much and how many serious racing people distrust Fierceness. The distrust is a bulwark, based in fact of course, but it is immense, and it’s often the first thing they think of to say when the favorite rises in the conversation.

That means that everybody knows that the horse has to mature in racing. Especially with a race as tough as today’s, it’s a fifty-fifty proposition whether Fierceness can get a hold on himself. And: That, plus the fact that there’s almost no way to discount him in this weak, Muth-less field, has the effect of making any player who has anything planned for the horse a little bit irritated. That ambient irritation factor means that we could see the money walking from him a bit as the clock wears on down to post time. We can still, like Pletcher and the rest of the connections, hope that Fierceness will choose to bring the best Fierceness out of the paddock.