Potential Winners and Losers of Rúben Amorim's Imminent Man Utd ...
Rúben Amorim looks likely to be Manchester United‘s next manager, replacing Erik ten Hag. Ahead of his appointment, we identify players who might benefit from his arrival and those who may need to adapt.
Change is in the air once again at Manchester United. Following Monday’s dismissal of Erik ten Hag, the club have wasted little time in moving for their primary target to replace him: Sporting CP head coach Rúben Amorim.
The 39-year-old, who’ll become the youngest full-time United head coach since Wilf McGuinness (31) was appointed in 1969, is expected to take over during the next international break ahead of the trip to Ipswich Town on 24 November.
Any change of manager always brings with it a degree of intrigue, but Amorim’s impending arrival is made even more fascinating because tactically he represents quite a significant shift from any prior United boss in recent memory.
Known for playing with a back three and without conventional wingers, Amorim’s setup would be a real departure from what fans are used to seeing at Old Trafford – assuming he decides to stick with the system that served him so well at Sporting, that is.
While that’s certainly not guaranteed, it’s only natural to wonder how life at United might play out if Amorim does opt to oversee something of a tactical revolution. Considering how drastic such an alteration could be, it will suit some players more than others.
Amorim’s Sporting have almost exclusively played with a back three since his appointment in March 2020. The formation he’s mostly favoured has broadly resembled a 3-4-3, though his setup cannot be called rigid.
Out of possession, it might sometimes look more like 5-1-2-2, 5-2-2-1 or 5-2-3 most of the time.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystIn possession, it can be interpreted in several ways, depending on personnel, opposition and game state.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystA backline comprising three bona fide centre-backs is the norm, however, regardless of whether one steps into midfield or not.
Considering United this season have an abundance of central defenders, many of whom are used to seeing a lot of the ball, this is potentially an area of Amorim’s setup that they are well equipped to adjust to.
The centre-backs play a major role for Amorim’s Sporting in terms of distribution and progressing play by stepping forward. Among defenders to play at least 1,000 minutes in Portugal’s top flight since the start of 2023-24, Sporting pair Matheus Reis (12.6) and Gonçalo Inácio (13.9) rank highest for progressive carries per 90, while those two and teammate Ousmane Diomande all rank in the top six for total carry distance per 90. Inácio (99.3) has also averaged more touches than any other player in the division over the same period.
Amorim’s Sporting have had a much greater focus on building through the centre in their defensive third than United have since the start of last season, as the two graphics below highlight, accentuating the importance of the centre-backs in possession.
On paper, it feels like a back three of Lisandro Martínez, Matthijs de Ligt and Leny Yoro could be a natural fit, though it’s also worth considering that Harry Maguire has been effective at bringing the ball out of defence at times in his career, and the added protection around him might negate some of the concern around his – or De Ligt’s – lack of mobility.
Rasmus HøjlundUnited have had a smorgasbord of problems since the start of last season, though it’s hard not to think the outlook would’ve at least been a little better had they been more effective at finding the net.
If only they’d thought of that, eh?!
Of course, we know football isn’t quite as easy as that, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t point out the obvious, because the underlying data is alarming.
Since the start of last season, United have scored 59 non-penalty goals in the Premier League from 66.2 non-penalty expected goals (xG); their underperformance of 7.2 is the second worst in the division after Everton (14.1). That’s bad enough, but what makes it even worse is their 66.2 non-pen xG is only better than that of six clubs when you ignore those promoted/relegated last term.
Essentially, then, United have been poor at creating high-value scoring opportunities, but in Rasmus Højlund, they do have a striker who’s shown flashes of considerable ability. There aren’t many centre-forwards around who have the skillset and physical attributes to be an asset in behind, in transition and with their back to goal, but Højlund is.
Furthermore, he’s also shown promising signs in front of goal, and the data backs this up. While his return of 11 goals is modest, he boasts a conversion rate of 26.2% that is bettered by only four players (minimum 15 shots) since the start of last season. Højlund has also got 57.1% of his efforts on target, a proportion only three strikers can better.
The issue, at least partly, is the service to him. With 42 shots since the start of 2023-24, he averages just 1.6 per 90, and while he cannot be completely free of blame, United’s poor xG record suggests a problem with creativity.
Viktor Gyökeres has thrived as the central striker under Amorim at Sporting, while both he (3.8) and Paulinho (4.1) – before the latter joined Mexican side Toluca – registered high shots-per-90 rates, reflecting a greater level of service.
The Primeira Liga isn’t the same level as the Premier League, we don’t know how Amorim’s United will play, and the players of the two clubs aren’t interchangeable. But Amorim’s success with Gyökeres is still a check in the pros column, and there’s every reason to expect Højlund to get more support.
Harry AmassIf United’s throng of centre-backs has them well equipped to play three at the back, then that’s probably offset by a lack of players who can feature as wing-backs, a key feature of Amorim’s Sporting team.
Even if we pretend for a moment that full-backs and wing-backs are pretty much the same thing, there’s still a real dearth of personnel. Luke Shaw’s been absent from the United team for over eight months; Tyrell Malacia was last seen on the pitch in May 2023; Alvaro Fernández was surprisingly sold on the cheap to Benfica; and one of Diogo Dalot or Noussair Mazraoui is routinely played out of position on the left.
Mazraoui and Dalot might have to do for now, but a more natural option lies in the youth sides.
Harry Amass featured quite prominently in pre-season and largely acquitted himself well before Ten Hag and United seemingly decided he wasn’t quite ready to make the step up to the first team.
Defensively, he still clearly had a lot to work on – understandable given he’s only 17 – but his technical talent and dynamism going forward were unquestionable. Were Amorim to insist on playing with wing-backs (which seems quite likely given his preference in the past), left-footed Amass would offer the kind of natural width that Dalot or Mazraoui would struggle to provide.
There’s also an argument that Amass would be a better attacking outlet given his speed, agility and ability on the ball.
Amorim wasn’t afraid to bring Nuno Mendes through at a similar age in the same position at Sporting, making the teenager first-choice on the left at the age of 18 after Marcos Acuña departed. Could Amass be another beneficiary of Amorim’s belief in promoting youth?
Manuel UgarteThis one’s fairly obvious, admittedly. Ugarte rose to prominence under Amorim at Sporting, joining them initially as a back-up to João Palhinha in 2021 before challenging him for his spot and ultimately replacing the Portugal international a year later when he moved to Fulham.
Ugarte became renowned at Sporting for his all-action style, occupying one of the double-pivot positions in Amorim’s midfield.
While a perfectly able footballer in most senses, it was his tenacity and presence off the ball that many deemed to be Ugarte’s key strengths. That wasn’t enough for Paris Saint-Germain coach Luis Enrique, who wanted a defensive midfielder who was more of a deep-lying playmaker – hence their move for João Neves in the summer, opening the door for Ugarte to depart.
Ugarte felt like a sensible signing because it was expected he’d bring the steel and off-ball mobility sorely missing from United’s midfield, but he hardly featured under Ten Hag. In fact, his 347 minutes in all competitions prior to Wednesday’s 5-2 EFL Cup win over Leicester was less than half the 761 and 779 amassed by Casemiro and Christian Eriksen, both of whom the club were apparently eager to offload in the summer.
Amorim’s arrival would surely see Ugarte – who was excellent against Leicester – become more prominent, and given his familiarity with playing in the coach’s systems, he might actually be quite important if United have to transition to a new style of play.
Potential Losers Bruno FernandesNow, it seems extremely unlikely that United’s captain will suddenly find himself out of the team or moved on following Amorim’s arrival. After all, Bruno Fernandes isn’t just the skipper, most would agree he’s their best player as well.
However, it’s a valid point to make that his No. 10 role doesn’t really exist in its current guise in Amorim’s system. Again, we don’t know with certainty what formation he’ll choose assuming he is appointed, but a proper No. 10 isn’t something he’s relied upon regularly in the past.
There is an iteration of Amorim’s preferred 3-4-3 formation that has incorporated a support striker at the tip of a midfield diamond, and this would therefore be one way to deploy Fernandes in a central role – though this wouldn’t be regarded as Amorim’s usual setup.
As such, there’s a distinct possibility Fernandes might have to adapt to a slightly different role than the one he’s used to. If Amorim were to set United up more like his Sporting team, the likeliest scenarios would see Fernandes either used as one of the two midfielders in a double pivot, or as one of the forwards supporting the central striker.
The latter wouldn’t be completely alien to him. For instance, Ten Hag used Fernandes out on the right when he wanted to crowd the midfield. Similarly, those wide forwards in Amorim’s Sporting side have quite often tucked in, almost functioning as a striker’s partner (as shown in the shape analysis graphics above).
Nevertheless, the point is Fernandes may not have the same freedom under Amorim; that’ll be a welcome change for some, but it could negatively impact his creativity.
As highlighted before, the width in Amorim’s system is predominantly provided by the wing-backs. That’s not to say the wide forwards never move out to the flanks – in fact, a key strength of Amorim’s Sporting side has been knowing when to shift the ball out wide, as no Primeira Liga club has created more chances than them from either wing since the start of last season.
However, those wide attackers generally operate more narrowly than perhaps United’s current crop are used to. For example, compare the ball-carrying habits of Marcus Edwards and Pote below…
… to Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho here…
They’re significantly different.
Of course, they’re very different players anyway and you could potentially say Amorim’s never really coached forwards like Rashford or Garnacho before, either in skillset or pure ability.
With that in mind, he might try to adapt his setup to focus on getting the best out of them – or he may not and they go on to thrive anyway, who knows?
These adapted roles would involve them generally working closer to the central striker, providing better support, and by extension operating closer to goal. That might actually appeal.
But as with Fernandes, there is a strong likelihood these positions will look very different to how they did under Ten Hag. If they’re unwilling to adapt in such a scenario, that could be problematic.
AntonyIf even the manager who signed you having already coached you for a couple of years pretty much refuses to play you, what hope do you have under the new guy?
Antony’s Manchester United career has been a gigantic disappointment. Signed in a deal reportedly worth an initial £82 million, he’s managed just 12 goals and five assists in all competitions. That’s only three more than Anthony Martial managed over the same period despite the Frenchman leaving in the summer and playing 3,150 fewer minutes since Antony’s club debut.
Media speculation this week has claimed United have already put him up for sale, seemingly writing off any hope of Antony ever reaching the levels expected of him when signing him from Ajax.
Granted, Antony falls in the previous “wingers” category, so he’d potentially find it difficult to get first-team football under Amorim anyway. But given the fact he managed just 155 minutes in all competitions this season under Ten Hag, the manager who seemingly believed he was an £82m player, it’s difficult to see a lifeline.
CasemiroIn fairness to Casemiro, he’s actually enjoyed a good start to the season. His introduction off the bench has made a difference on a couple of occasions, he hasn’t looked as exposed in recent games as last term, and his passing ability remains valuable to United, especially in transition.
He was also excellent against Leicester on Wednesday, scoring twice (he should’ve had a hat-trick) and generally bossing the midfield.
On the whole, he looks much sharper than he did in 2023-24 and some will feel he’s deserved to largely keep Ugarte out of the team.
But, if Ugarte was brought in to ultimately replace Casemiro and the Uruguayan has experience playing under the new manager in the new system he (potentially) introduces, it would seem there’s a strong possibility the Brazilian’s minutes decrease.
Perhaps not in the immediate future with Kobbie Mainoo out injured, but once he’s back, it would make sense for Amorim to focus on a central pairing of Mainoo and Ugarte if he’s trying to look to the future, and who knows, Fernandes could be competing for one of these roles as well.
Getting him out of the team certainly hasn’t appeared quite as urgent in 2024-25, and Wednesday’s win showed pairing Casemiro with Ugarte as a double pivot is an option.
But should Ugarte get a run in the side and settle quickly in a system he knows alongside Mainoo, Casemiro may find himself out in the cold.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
