Mike Tyson Vs. Jake Paul: Odds, Records, Prediction

TOPSHOT - Former US boxer Mike Tyson (L) and YouTuber Jake Paul face off during a press conference ... [+] at the Apollo Theatre in New York, on May 13, 2024. Former heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson's July 20 fight against YouTube sensation Jake Paul in Dallas will be a sanctioned heavyweight professional bout, fighters and promoters announced on April 29. The fight will be over eight two-minute rounds with the result to count on the record of both Paul and Tyson, who lost his last official bout in 2005. (Photo by Kena Betancur / AFP) (Photo by KENA BETANCUR/AFP via Getty Images)

Most non-boxing fans I’ve encountered during the past several months have confidently told me how much they’re looking forward to Mike Tyson destroying Jake Paul in their eight-round fight on Friday night. But unless the 58-year-old Tyson lands a knockout blow in the first round, his road to victory likely will be choppier than most think. Here’s everything you need to know about Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Many observers who aren’t regular followers of boxing remember Tyson in his prime when he was termed the Baddest Man on the Planet. But that Tyson hasn’t existed since 1991. After he got out of prison in 1995, he had a decent run. But he was also not competing well against the elite of the division.

Then, he got smoked by Danny Williams and Kevin McBride, neither of whom were even B-level talent, and he retired. That was 20 years ago. He returned for an exhibition against Roy Jones Jr. in 2020, and though he probably did more damage than Jones, it was clear that Tyson hadn’t found a third life as an elite-level boxer.

Whether whatever he has left more than 30 years after his prime is enough to beat Paul is probably why people will tune in to Netflix on Friday night. Either that, or they really think that Tyson will knock out a 27-year-old in Paul who has good power and who has improved every time he’s stepped into the ring.

“The people think I'm going to get knocked out by this strong, powerful guy,” Paul said. “All the people in my comments say, ‘Look at his power. He's going to get KO’d.’ ... This has taken a chance to fight somebody as vicious as Mike can be. You got to risk it for the biscuit. That's the name of the game. I'm here to make history. I'm here for a challenge. I'm here to fight one of the most dangerous men in all of boxing. No one that ever did anything great got there with ease or by an easy, non-bumpy road. I'm here to challenge myself. He's vicious. He's a killer. I know all of these things. He has one-punch knockout power. He's the greatest heavyweight of all time. But I will prove . . . all the haters wrong.”

The fight was originally scheduled for July 20, but Tyson suffered an ulcer issue while on an airplane in May. As a result, the bout was postponed for four months. According to Tyson, that health issue just delayed the inevitable.

“Hey, listen, [as] soon as I catch this guy, it's [going to be over],” Tyson said. “He’s going to be running around, but as soon as I catch this guy, it's going to be totally over.”

Or perhaps Paul will shock most of the sporting world and knock out Tyson.

“People are yelling at me in the event, but what happens when I put this man to sleep?” Paul asked. “… He's saying that it's going to be my funeral. He's saying it's going to be my wake. He's going to kill Jake Paul. All of these things, and that's why I love Mike. I respect him, but we're not friends anymore until November 15. I'm knocking this [dude] out, and we're going to see who's dead.”

Here’s more info on the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Netflix beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Friday.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 18: Mike Tyson and Jake Paul attend Fanatics Fest Press Conference at ... [+] Javits Center on August 18, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)

Paul is the slight betting favorite, though the latest money seems to be coming in on Tyson. As of this writing, Paul is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100), while Tyson is the +165 underdog (win $165 on a $100 wager). A few months ago, Paul was as wide as -300, while Tyson was +240. Even last week, the odds were -290 for Paul and +220 for Tyson. For some reason, bettors (at least non-sharp bettors) seem to really like Tyson.

At this moment, you’d be getting a solid value on Paul’s money line. But if you want to get a little more specific, you could take Paul to win by decision at +260 or Paul to win by stoppage at +150. If you like Tyson, you could take him to win by KO at +250 or, to get even more value, to win by KO in Rounds 1-2 for +650.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Paul to beat Tyson at -210, Amanda Serrano to beat Katie Taylor at +105 and Mario Barrios to beat Abel Ramos at -1200. If you hit all of those, you’d make a $228 profit on a $100 wager.

Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) is the Hall of Famer who terrorized the heavyweight division in the late 1980s and early 1990s. It’s a stretch to say he’s one of the best heavyweights of all time, but there might not be another fighter who’s been more feared in his prime than Tyson. His best wins include a destruction of Michael Spinks, a beatdown of Larry Holmes and two victories against Donovan “Razor” Ruddock. But he also lost to Buster Douglas in one of the biggest upsets of all time, he got hammered by Lennox Lewis and he fell to Evander Holyfield twice. It’s been nearly 20 years, but he’s lost three of his last four fights.

Though Paul (10-1, 7 KOs) has never faced an elite fighter (or anything even close to that), he’s mostly dispatched his competition with relative ease. His most impressive victories have come against top-notch MMA fighters, including Tyron Woodley twice, Ben Askren and Anderson Silva. Paul’s only defeat came to Tommy Fury.

Tyson certainly could win, but he’d probably have to knock Paul out in the first round or two. After that, this could be an ugly fight filled with swinging, missing and holding. I wouldn’t be shocked if Paul was the one to score the stoppage. But ultimately, I think he’ll just outwork and outland Tyson in what probably will be a fight filled with tension but without a ton of action. Say Paul by decision, somewhere in the 78-74 neighborhood.