NBA draft 2024 - Pelton's updated top 30 prospects - ESPN

With the field set for next week's NBA draft after last Sunday's deadline for early entrants to withdraw, it's time for the final version of my stats-based projections for this year's prospects.

These projections are expressly not an attempt to predict where players will be drafted. That's the province of ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo. However, my projections may be more telling for who some teams will draft than others.

Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets' front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.

Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.

That makes the Rockets' No. 3 pick especially interesting this season. Depending on how the first two picks go, Houston could have its choice of the top two players in my projections, Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan. The latest mock draft from Givony and Woo has the Rockets picking Sheppard.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I, the Nike EYBL AAU competition and top professional leagues to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100-prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.

For more on how my projections work and past examples, visit here.

Now, let's get to the top-30 projections along with Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.

1. Reed Sheppard

Kentucky G Top 100: No. 4 Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.2 WARP

Already the top player in my stats-only projections, Sheppard moved atop the consensus model as well, from No. 7 in ESPN's top 100 in April to No. 4 now. Sheppard's projected 39% 3-point shooting as a rookie is the highlight. No other player in this year's draft is projected to shoot better than 37%.

Beyond that, Sheppard's accumulation of steals and blocks also stands out -- particularly relative to his wingspan, measured at 6-foot-3¼ at the draft combine. Yet Sheppard has the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 100 and a better projected block rate than 6-9 post Tristan da Silva. His closest NBA-bound comps in steals and blocks are long-limbed guards Kent Bazemore and Delon Wright.

2. Donovan Clingan

UConn C Top 100: No. 3 Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.9 WARP

Clingan's shot blocking is his standout skill. Just three draft picks in my database had better projected block rates as rookies: Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson and Victor Wembanyama. Clingan adds atypically high usage (25% last season for the national champions) for a finisher of his ilk. Among the eight players in my database projected to shoot at least 60%, only Udoka Azubuike had a higher rate, setting Clingan apart from more selective finishers such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams.

3. Alexandre Sarr

Perth C Top 100: No. 2 Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Averaging just 17.2 minutes per game in the Australian NBL at age 18 (he turned 19 in April, after the season ended), Sarr rated as one of the top 20 players in the league by virtue of his 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Sarr ranking third overall is a product of the strong projections for Clingan and Sheppard rather than any slight as a likely top-two pick. His stats-only projection makes him the third player in this year's draft ranked in the top 10 in both components of the consensus model, typically a strong indicator of NBA success.

4. Zach Edey

Purdue C Top 100: No. 16 Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 2.8 WARP

Edey's projection slipped a bit because of his move from No. 14 to No. 16 in the top 100, as well as a tweak to my projections to utilize players' NCAA assist rates via Hoop-Math.com. Edey was assisted on 71% of his made field goals, second highest of any prospect ranked in ESPN's top 80. Edey still projects as a strong offensive player in the NBA thanks to his high efficiency on a massive projected 26% usage rate. The questions are more about the defensive end, where just three draft picks in my database have a lower steal projection than Edey: Alex Len, Doug McDermott and Nick Richards.

5. Johnny Furphy

Kansas SF Top 100: No. 18 Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.5 WARP

Furphy is my top sleeper in this year's draft mainly because of his efficiency as a freshman playing primarily on the perimeter. The Australian wing made 64% of his 2s, 35% of his 3s and 77% at the foul line. As a result, he's got the second-best projected true shooting percentage (.553) of any perimeter player younger than age 21, trailing only Sheppard.

6. Ja'Kobe Walter

Baylor SG Top 100: No. 14 Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

Walter's top-10 stats-only ranking is a little tougher to explain because he wasn't an efficient scorer in his lone season at Baylor -- 42% on 2s and 34% on 3s. My model likes his chances of improving as a shooter in the NBA based on high volume from 3 (6.3 attempts per game) and 79% foul shooting. Walter was far more effective on catch-and-shoot opportunities, shooting an effective 55% after accounting for the additional value of 3s.

7. Zaccharie Risacher

Bourg SF Top 100: No. 1 Stats: No. 55

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Risacher's stats-only projection isn't quite as pessimistic as ranking 55th looks. He's still projected for 0.5 WARP based only on his stats from the French LNB Pro A along with EuroLeague and EuroCup, which are likely selling him short as a shooter. Risacher has shot 41% on 3s during those games, but because the sample is still small (209 attempts, fewer than Walter took in one season at Baylor), he's regressed to a 34% NBA projection. Risacher's form looks legit, and if he's an elite shooter, that opens up the rest of his game. Still, Risacher needs to fill out the box score more than he has in France. His assist rate in particular is weak for a wing. Risacher averaged just 1.6 assists per 36 minutes across competitions this season.

8. Jared McCain

Duke G Top 100: No. 15 Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

After Sheppard, McCain has the next-best shooting projection among any player younger than 22 years old. He shot 41% on nearly six 3-point attempts per game at Duke and a robust 88.5% from the foul line -- better than Sheppard's 83%. McCain is also a strong defensive rebounder for a guard, a positive indicator, though he averaged just 2.4 assists per 40 minutes playing alongside several other ball handlers with the Blue Devils. Having measured 6-2 without shoes at the combine, McCain may need to play more point guard in the NBA.

9. Kyshawn George

Miami G/F Top 100: No. 20 Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Despite averaging a modest 7.6 points per game as a part-time starter in his lone NCAA season, George showcased all the tools necessary to be a 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He hit 41% of his 3s on 7.3 attempts per 40 minutes and recorded steals and blocks at solid rates using a wingspan measured at more than 6-10.

10. Stephon Castle

UConn G Top 100: No. 6 Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Castle looks the part of a do-everything guard who can compensate for limited outside shooting (27% on 3s) with his activity. His steal and block rates were disappointing, with the steal rate being a weakness. On the plus side, Castle shot a solid 54% inside the arc and posted an above-average usage rate as a freshman starter on the national champs. As a result, I like him to beat his stats-only projection.

11. Rob Dillingham

Kentucky G Top 100: No. 8 Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Since he's gone from No. 4 to No. 8 in the top 100, Dillingham has dropped four spots from our April update. This feels more appropriate for him. Dillingham was an efficient scorer given his high volume as a freshman (30% usage) but may struggle to make an impact defensively at 6-1 barefoot. He blocked just two shots in 746 minutes at Kentucky.

12. Cam Christie

Minnesota SG Top 100: No. 33 Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

New to the rankings since our April update, Christie quietly had a far better freshman season than his older brother, Max, who was drafted in the 2022 second round by the Los Angeles Lakers. Cam hit 39% of his 3s on more than five attempts per game compared to Max's 32% at Michigan State during the 2021-22 season. Cam also showed better decision-making with an assist-to-turnover rate near two, where his brother's was under one. Cam's projection further benefits from being the youngest NCAA player in the top 100. He won't turn 19 until July.

13. Devin Carter

Providence G Top 100: No. 13 Stats: No. 21

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

The rare late bloomer who excels in my projections, Carter ranked fourth in box plus-minus last season among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes of action, per Stathead.com. His steal and block rates have always been elite, but Carter became one of the nation's best defensive rebounders from the perimeter last season. He improved to 38% shooting beyond the arc after making just 29% of 3s in his first two years in college.

14. Tidjane Salaun

Cholet SF Top 100: No. 9 Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

The youngest player in this year's draft, Salaun, who turns 19 in August, showed development over the course of his first full season in the French LNB Pro A. While not an efficient shooter over the course of the season -- making 43% of his 2s and 33% of his 3s -- Salaun went 12-of-17 inside the arc in Cholet's three playoff games. (His 1-of-9 foul shooting was less impressive.) Salaun may benefit from spending more time cutting with NBA spacing rather than being used primarily as a spot-up shooter.

15. Carlton Carrington

Pittsburgh G Top 100: No. 19 Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

Another player who will be 18 on draft night, Carrington averaged 33.2 MPG as a freshman, second to Notre Dame's Markus Burton among players from major conferences, per Stathead.com. Carrington must improve on 32% 3-point shooting, but he was more accurate on free throws (79%) and posted more than twice as many assists as turnovers.

16. Matas Buzelis

G League Ignite F Top 100: No. 5 Stats: No. 49

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Relative to past Ignite prospects, Buzelis' scoring at the G League level was below-average. He used 22% of Ignite's plays, a rate lower than fellow first-round prospects Ron Holland II and Tyler Smith, and wasn't particularly efficient on them with a .522 true shooting percentage that was also weaker than both teammates. He'll have to improve his range after hitting just 26% of his 3s for Ignite. The 6-10 Buzelis did excel as a shot blocker, easily leading Ignite in block rate.

17. Kyle Filipowski

Duke F/C Top 100: No. 21 Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Filipowski's wingspan (6-10½) measured shorter than his barefoot height (6-10¾) at the combine, a rarity for any NBA player but particularly a big man. In the NBA's database, there have been three first-round picks as tall as Filipowski with a so-called "negative" wingspan: Frank Kaminsky, Kelly Olynyk and Mason Plumlee. Like Kaminsky and Olynyk, Filipowski compensates with offensive skill. He made 74 3-pointers over two seasons at Duke and handed out 2.8 assists per game last season.

18. Nikola Topic

Red Star PG Top 100: No. 10 Stats: No. 37

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Among players ranked in ESPN's top 30, only Marquette's Tyler Kolek has a better assist projection than Topic. His finishing ability as a bigger guard also stands out. Topic made 64% of his 2-point attempts this season in Adriatic League play. The issue is when Topic gets further from the basket. He shot 26.5% on 3s, and despite being a highly accurate free throw shooter (86%), his shot tends to flatten out from distance. Additionally, Topic generates few steals and blocks, hurting his projection.

19. Ryan Dunn

Virginia F Top 100: No. 28 Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Defensively, Dunn's ability is close to a lock. He's one of just three draft picks in my database projected to block at least 5% of opponents' 2-point attempts and generate 1.5 steals per 100 plays along with Nerlens Noel and Walker Kessler. To believe in Dunn as a top-20 prospect, however, requires expecting him to either develop an outside shot after making 52.5% of his free throws at Virginia or add enough strength to defend post players at 6-6½ barefoot.

20. Ron Holland II

G League Ignite SF Top 100: No. 11 Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

As compared to his Ignite teammate Buzelis, Holland projects better based solely on statistical performance. Holland is the superior scorer, is nearly nine months younger and racks up steals in impressive fashion. Only Sheppard has a better steal projection among top-30 players. Still, Holland offered plenty to nitpick, including 24% 3-point shooting and more turnovers than assists. He simply seems to be taking a disproportionate amount of blame for G League Ignite's noncompetitive 2-32 regular-season record.

21. Baylor Scheierman

Creighton SF Top 100: No. 27 Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

One of the best shooters in the draft, Scheierman led the Big East with 110 3s last season, making them at a 38% clip, slightly below his 39% career accuracy. He also shot 88% from the foul line. For a player of his archetype, Scheierman brings more to the table than just shooting. He was Creighton's leading rebounder and ranked third on the team with 3.9 APG. That helps Scheierman's stats-only projection overcome his age. Scheierman, who turns 24 in September, is the oldest player in the consensus top 30.

22. Jaylen Wells

Washington State F/G Top 100: No. 45 Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

A juco transfer from Sonoma State, Wells impressed statistically during his lone Division I season by shooting 42% from 3-point range and posting a microscopic turnover rate with fewer than one per 40 minutes. It also helps Wells' projection that he's young for his class and less than four months older than one-and-done prospect George. Of the 10 players most comparable to Wells at the same age in my database, seven were first-round picks and two of the three second-rounders (Allen Crabbe and Svi Mykhailiuk) have carved out long NBA careers.

23. Yves Missi

Baylor C Top 100: No. 23 Stats: No. 27

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

An archetypal rim-running big, Missi attempted just 14 shots in his lone college season outside the paint, according to CBBAnalytics.com. Missi did plenty of damage near the hoop, shooting 61% while posting the third-best projected offensive rebound rate among top-60 prospects behind Edey and Clingan. He does fall a bit short of past prospects in his ilk such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams in terms of shot blocking. Missi rejected 7% of opponent 2-point attempts, only average for an NBA-bound center.

24. Tyler Smith

G League Ignite F/C Top 100: No. 32 Stats: No. 19

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The top-rated Ignite prospect by stats, Smith joined Jalen Green and Leonard Miller as the third draft prospect in Ignite history to use plays at an above-average rate with a true shooting percentage better than league average. A capable floor spacer, Smith shot 36% on 3s and 73% at the line. Scouts worry about Smith's defensive potential based on his subpar rebounding and shot blocking.

25. Jalen Bridges

Baylor SF Top 100: No. 53 Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

For a top prospect, Bridges was a notably small part of the Baylor offense, topping out at 12.2 PPG as a fifth-year senior. Among players in the consensus top 40, only the defensive-minded Dunn has a lower projected usage rate. Yet Bridges figures to fit comfortably into an NBA 3-and-D role if he can maintain the improvement he showed by hitting 41% from 3 last season, lifting his career mark to 37%. In addition, Bridges is also a strong offensive rebounder and shot blocker for a wing.

26. Isaiah Collier

USC PG Top 100: No. 22 Stats: No. 29

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

After consistently projecting in the lottery much of the season, Collier has seen his spot in the top 100 drop to the point where he's nearly matched his stats-only projection. On the plus side, Collier is a skilled shot creator who was also active generating steals. Collier's 67% accuracy at the foul line, high turnover rate (4.4 per 40 minutes) and limited rebounding presence are all concerns.

27. Justin Edwards

Kentucky SF Top 100: No. 39 Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Starting with Collier, we've got a series of players who came into this season as top prep prospects but had uneven freshman campaigns. Collier was first in ESPN's recruiting rankings, Edwards third and Cody Williams seventh. Of them, Edwards has the strongest stats-only projection based on the lower replacement level for wings and his strong play on the Nike EYBL AAU circuit. Yet he's fallen the furthest in the top 100, perhaps a case of scouts overcorrecting.

28. Jaylon Tyson

Cal SF Top 100: No. 30 Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Tyson played just 55 minutes as a true freshman at Texas before transferring. After a solid season at Texas Tech, he blossomed into a star at his third school, Cal. It helps Tyson's projection that he is on the younger side for a junior -- a month older than Dunn, a sophomore -- and that he's filled out the stat sheet with production across the board.

29. Kel'el Ware

Indiana C Top 100: No. 24 Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

As a top-10 recruit at Oregon, Ware backed up older draft prospect N'Faly Dante. A transfer to Indiana made Ware a featured player, and he came within a hair of averaging a double-double (15.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG). For an athletic center, Ware brings solid skill, having made 32 3s in two seasons at a 34% clip. It's also impressive that he had nearly as many assists as turnovers.

30. Cody Williams

Colorado SG Top 100: No. 12 Stats: No. 51

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Of the top prospects in this group, Williams has the weakest stats-only projection. That's in part because Williams didn't rate as well in the EYBL as Collier -- best among all 2024 prospects based strictly on AAU -- or Edwards, who ranked third in that group behind McCain. Williams also did not rate as well at Colorado, where he shot well on 2s (59%) and 3s (41.5%) but contributed little else in the box score other than an above-average block rate.

35. Dalton Knecht

Tennessee SF Top 100: No. 7 Stats: No. 76

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.

Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.

There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.

45. Bronny James

USC G Top 100: No. 55 Stats: No. 40

Consensus: 0.5 WARP

It's also worth discussing James. To some degree, he's difficult to project because perimeter players who saw so little action in college in a low-usage rate rarely declare for the draft after their freshmen seasons. The best comps for James in this regard, like Peyton Watson of the Denver Nuggets, are typically bigger. James will have to dramatically improve his shooting to fit a 3-and-D role after hitting 27% from the college line. Still, his projection suggests taking him in the second round will be reasonable if his name was in fact "Charles Stephenson," as James' agent Rich Paul mused to Givony recently.