The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Likely Trump
89% chance of victory
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 320300280280300320’20’16
Harris +3 to Trump +6
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +8+6+4+2+2+4+6+8
Likely Trump
89% chance of victory
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 320300280280300320’20’16
For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Likely Trump
89% chance of victory
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates 320300280280300320’20’16
Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +8+6+4+2+2+4+6+8
For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.
As votes are counted in each state, our model adjusts its estimates in other areas with similar demographics and voting history. Select a state to see detailed results and estimates.
Percent of votes in
NYT win probability NYT estimate of final vote N.J. 86% Harris D +6.6 Maine 21% 86% Harris D +5.9 Neb. 2 74% 86% Harris D +5.8 N.M. 71% 90% Harris D +5.3 Va. 81% >95% Harris D +4.7 N.H. 65% 91% Harris D +3.5 Minn. 13% 64% Harris D +2.3 Pa. 73% 67% Trump R +2.2 Wis. 63% 69% Trump R +2.2 Mich. 32% 67% Trump R +2.5 Ga. 93% >95% Trump R +2.7 Nev. 0% 65% Trump R +3.2 N.C. 88% >95% Trump R +3.4 Ariz. 53% 79% Trump R +4.5The lines below include a shaded range showing our model’s uncertainty. As more results are reported, the uncertainty around the estimates will narrow.
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Watch these charts to see how our live estimates are changing. In the electoral vote estimate chart, the shaded red and blue areas will shrink as the possible outcomes narrow.
Chance of winning the presidency
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Watch these charts to see how our live estimates are changing. In the electoral vote estimate chart, the shaded red and blue areas will shrink as the possible outcomes narrow.
