2024 NFL Week 16 betting: New Orleans Saints-Green Bay Packers ...

In the final game of Week 16, the Green Bay Packers look to keep pace in the NFC playoff race when they host the New Orleans Saints from frigid Lambeau Field on "Monday Night Football." The Packers have won eight of their past 10 games enters Monday's contest as a two touchdown favorite over a Saints team that is starting a backup quarterback. Jordan Love has been playing at an elite level recently and hasn't thrown an interception over his past four games. The Packers' offense has also gotten a huge boost from Josh Jacobs, who ranks third in the league in rushing yards. Jacobs has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his past five games and faces a weak New Orleans run defense. Jacobs is -350 to score a touchdown Monday night.

Meanwhile, the Saints look to pull off a huge upset without their best player on the field. Alvin Kamara was ruled out for Monday with a groin injury. Kendre Miller will get the start for the New Orleans backfield with Spencer Rattler under center. Last week, Rattler replaced Jake Haener and led a near 17-point comeback in the second half against the Washington Commanders. After leading the Saints to four scoring drives in Week 15, Rattler will look to help New Orleans cover for the second straight game on Monday night.

Here is everything you need to know to bet on Saints-Packers and Eric Moody's favorite bets for "Monday Night Football".

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Spread: Packers -14.5
Moneyline: Packers (-1200), Saints (+700)
Over/Under: 42.5

First-half spread: Packers -9.5 (-120), Saints +9.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Packers (-600), Saints (+380)
Packers total points: 28.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Saints total points: 13.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Packers by 14.5 points (82.7% chance to win)

Jordan Love total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Love total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -145/Under +110)
Spencer Rattler total passing yards: 174.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Kendre Miller total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Christian Watson total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over Even/Under -130)
Romeo Doubs total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over Even/Under -130)
Jayden Reed total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Tucker Kraft total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over Even/Under -130)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Juwan Johnson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jacobs total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Packers -14.5

This is a big number, but this is a must-win game for the Packers to keep their playoff hopes alive. Lambeau Field is one of the toughest places to play, especially in December and Green Bay hosts a Saints team that's been hit hard by injuries. The Saints defense also gives up the third-most total yards per game to opponents while the Packers' defense is fourth in takeaways. With Spencer Rattler stepping in at QB for New Orleans, things don't look good for them. Expect Green Bay's running game to dominate behind an offensive line that ranks seventh in run-block win rate.

Josh Jacobs over 21.5 rushing attempts.

This line is high, and Jacobs has only hit it twice in his last five games, but the Packers rely heavily on the running game in cold weather, especially in December. I'd be surprised if Green Bay doesn't give Jacobs 22 or more carries. Plus, the Saints' defense ranks 30th in run stop win rate, making it a clear weakness. The Packers would be smart to exploit this, as it could open up the passing game. If Green Bay stays committed to the run, Jacobs should hit this mark with ease.

Courtesy ESPN Research

The Packers have not been double-digit favorites since 2022. Their largest favorite role under Matt LaFleur is 13.5 (done three times, last in 2020). Jordan Love has never been more than a 6.5-point favorite. The Packers have covered four straight as double-digit favorites.

The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time in the last 19 seasons (+11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, won 9-0). They have not been at least 13-point underdogs since 2005.

The Saints are 3-14 ATS in prime-time games over the last five seasons, the worst record in the NFL. The Packers are 21-11 ATS in prime-time games under Matt LaFleur, the most covers in the NFL in that span (3rd-best ATS percentage).

The Packers have covered four straight games, the second-longest active streak (Broncos: 5).

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

The Saints are 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

The Saints are 0-3 ATS on extra rest this season.

Three straight Saints games have gone under the total.

Betting storylines: All the latest buzz

Fantasy injury tracker: Who's in and who's out?

Fantasy football: Week 16 rankings