When will interest rates go down? Here's what you need to know ...

12 hours ago
RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board will announce its September cash rate decision on Tuesday at 2:30pm AEST.

With the outcome set to impact the hip pockets of borrowers, many are hoping board members drop the cash rate.

But most experts are saying we're going to have to wait a little longer for that to happen.

Here is a quick catch-up on interest rates to get you up to speed.

What is the cash rate target?

The cash rate target is currently at 4.35 per cent

It's a figure set by the RBA that influences how much commercial banks charge customers for borrowing money.

But when the RBA changes the cash rate target, interest rates for mortgages don't automatically change — the banks decide that. 

They typically put out a statement announcing when/if their rates will change.

Could the RBA cut rates today?

The economists we heard from don't think so

They predict the RBA will decide keep the rate at 4.35 per cent — again. 

But we won't know for sure until this afternoon, so keep up with all the RBA developments in the ABC's business team's live blog. 

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina reckons the RBA will keep rates the same for the next few months.

Ms Mousina says economic data since the RBA's last meeting shows:

wages growth slowing job growth remaining solidthe unemployment rate tracking at 4.2 per centweak economic growth in the second quarterinflation moderating as expected poor readings of consumer and business confidence

"This backdrop is basically in line with the [RBA's] forecasts for the economy and doesn't argue the need for an imminent rate cut," she says. 

ING Bank's Asia-Pacific regional head of research Robert Carnell agrees.

"There is no possibility of the RBA easing at this meeting," Mr Carnell says.

Meanwhile, the Australian Securities Exchange's (ASX) RBA rate tracker puts the chance of a rate cut at today's meeting at just 10 per cent.

When will interest rates go down?

No-one can say for sure, so we're relying on educated guesses from economists in the banking industry. 

Here is a quick look at when the big four banks reckon rates will go down:

ANZ: FebruaryCBA: DecemberNAB: MayWestpac: March (according to the most recent weekly report)

Speaking at an event on September 5, RBA governor Michele Bullock told borrowers not to expect a cut in the "near term".

"It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts," Ms Bullock said.

"Circumstances may change, of course, and if economic conditions don't evolve as expected, the board will respond accordingly."

This week's RBA meeting comes after the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 0.5 per cent last week.

Some are seeing this as a possible sign Australian rate cuts are on the way.

What will it take for the RBA to cut rates?

Lower inflation, with the RBA aiming to get inflation down to the 2 to 3 per cent range. 

According to the latest data, Australia's annual rate of inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 per cent in the March quarter.

"Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range," an RBA statement said after last month's meeting. 

How long has the cash rate been 4.35 per cent?

It's been at this rate for 10 months. 

The RBA increased the cash rate to 4.35 in November last year

There have been six RBA meetings since November, but each time the board has decided to keep the cash rate on hold.

When was the cash rate last this high?

The last time the cash rate target was higher than 4.35 per cent was in November 2011, when it was 4.5 per cent. 

How many more RBA meetings are there this year?

Two

They're scheduled for:

November 4-5December 9-10
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