After Missing Out On Shohei Ohtani, The Toronto Blue Jays Must Pivot

TORONTO, ON - JULY 1: A general view of Rogers Centre as a large Canadian flag is unfurled in the ... [+] outfield on Canada Day during the playing of the Canadian national anthem before the start of the Toronto Blue Jays MLB game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on July 1, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Friday was a great day for Toronto Blue Jays fans. Conflicting news and rumors swirled around social media about Shohei Ohtani signing with the club, including one (evidently false) report that he was on a plane to Toronto.

Saturday was a dispiriting day for Jays fans. The two-way superstar announced he was signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers on an unbelievable 10-year, $700 million contract. It’s the largest deal ever signed by an athlete in U.S. sports history—by far—and it’s unlikely Toronto’s offer was all that close.

The Blue Jays have now missed out on the biggest free agent of the offseason as well as the biggest trade target—outfielder Juan Soto, who became a New York Yankee earlier in the week. After finishing in second place for the top names on the market, they have to salvage their offseason so they can make a playoff run in the increasingly daunting AL East.

Pitching isn’t a problem. The club will retain five hurlers who combined for 147 starts last season as well as all seven of their relievers who threw more than 30 innings.

Their lineup is in need of reinforcements, however. The club stands to lose first baseman/designated hitter Brandon Belt, third baseman Matt Chapman, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, and second baseman/left fielder Whit Merrifield in free agency. They need to acquire at least one outfielder and one infielder to replace them.

The top available position player after Ohtani is Cody Bellinger. The 2019 National League MVP recovered from two miserable seasons to hit .307 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2023. He’s only 28 years old and can play all three outfield positions all well as first base.

Given his age, he will seek a long-term contract, with MLB Trade Rumors predicting a 12-year deal. That may give clubs pause considering some of the red flags in his profile. He batted .165 and .210 in 2021 and 2022 with slugging percentages below .400. While he was much more productive in 2023, his batted-ball metrics don’t necessarily support a power resurgence, as he ranked in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Beyond Bellinger, the outfield market thins out. Jung Hoo Lee is a 25-year-old former MVP of the Korea Baseball Organization who has been posted by the Kiwoom Heroes. He has a gaudy .340 batting average in seven KBO seasons but isn’t projected to hit for power in MLB, and his best fit defensively is left field. He will have to maintain an excellent batting average against tougher pitching to justify a starting role.

Jorge Soler is a free agent on the heels of a 36-home run campaign and his first All-Star Game appearance. While he’s a corner outfielder by trade, he’s best served as a designated hitter, which hampers his value.

As far as pure center fielders go, Kiermaier is the next-best available beyond Bellinger. After 11 years with the Tampa Bay Rays, he had a 3.9 WAR season for the Blue Jays last year and won his fourth Gold Glove. As he enters his mid-30s, this is probably his last chance for a multiyear contract. Expect him to wait until Bellinger signs somewhere before putting pen to paper.

Two more former Blue Jays could intrigue Toronto in free agency. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. played mostly left field for the team from 2018-2022 before they traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks before last season. Now he’s on the open market after a career-best 24 home runs, but a career-worst .309 on-base percentage.

His former Blue Jays teammate Teoscar Hernández belted 147 home runs over the last six years, but comes with similar on-base concerns and struck out 211 times last season with the Seattle Mariners.

Reunions with either Chapman or Merrifield are possible, with Chapman commanding a bigger payday. He’ll turn 31 in April and has always been an above-average player offensively and defensively. He collected his fourth Gold Glove last season and hit .240/.330/.424. He’s not the same hitter he used to be since tearing his labrum in 2020 though and suffered through a deep slump last year.

The ever-versatile Merrifield is soon to be 35 years old and made his third All-Star team in 2023, but struggled badly in the second half. His year-end batting numbers were .272/.318/.382. He’s a high-contact hitter and he still stole 26 bases last season, but doesn’t add much power and has had an OPS+ below 100 (league average) in each of the last three years.

Beyond those two, the market for infielders is remarkably thin this winter. Corner infielder Gio Urshela batted .299, but without many walks and only two home runs in 62 games. Middle infielder Amed Rosario only got on base at a .305 rate with just six home runs in 142 games.

None of these players make up for missing out on Ohtani, who batted .304/.412/.654 with a league-leading 44 home runs while simultaneously posting a 3.14 ERA over 132 innings pitched. That ship has sailed, so the Blue Jays need to make the best of the remaining free-agent class to compete for the playoffs in 2024.