State of Origin 2023 Game 2: Queensland Maroons v NSW Blues ...

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2 mins: Paulo, To’o, Haas, Young and Tedesco all hit the line hard for NSW but Moses is forced to launch his first kick from inside his own half. Queensland make little ground for three tackles but Fifita makes his presence known on tackle four and Trbojevic coughs up a soft penalty at the ruck. The Maroons on the attack early.

Kick-off!

Origin II is underway. The Blues receive Reece Walsh’s kick-off. Can they keep the series alive at fortress Suncorp?

The pre-match formalities have been taken care of. On with the footy…

And now the home side, top to toe in Maroon, like most of the 50-odd thousand Queenslanders inside Suncorp Stadium.

First out on to the arena are the Blues, led by James Tedesco, and they are met with a cacophony of boos and catcalls. The Blues are more recognisable tonight in their sky blue uniform after Origin one’s navy affair.

Of course, not everyone was booing. Photograph: Darren England/AAP

Wally Lewis and Darren Lockyer emerge from the gloom to parade the State of Origin shield. We are the Champions gets an airing on the PA system. Queensland relishing the opportunity to showcase their status. Could it be hubris?

The lights are down at Suncorp Stadium. The two teams are going through their final drills in the sheds. We’ll be underway in about ten minutes.

Just enough time before kick-off for this nice read from Gavin Willacy about the growth of rugby league Stateside.

The NRL’s priority in the US seems to be more about cashing in on gambling revenue with no mention yet of developing the local game.

Have you ever seen Succession’s Roman Roy and Queensland’s Cameron Munster in the same room at the same time?

“Can anything upstage what happened on day five of the Ashes last night?” wonders David Ritchie. I doubt it, but hopefully there’s more action in the 8-10pm region than we saw through the Birmingham rain yesterday!

Gideon Suvio is tuning in from PNG and he wants to wish the Blues all the best for tonight’s game.

Series referee Ashley Klein had plenty of whistleblowing to do in South Australia. Hopefully tonight the two sets of players allow the game to flow.

Referee Ashley Klein speaks to James Tedesco of the Blues during game one of the 2023 State of Origin series. Photograph: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

It’s cool and dry and still in Brisbane this evening. In other words, perfect rugby league playing conditions.

Queensland, beautiful one day, perfect the next. Photograph: Darren England/AAP

You’re not imagining it, Queensland do tend to win when its tight.

Queensland have a success rate of 51% in Origin games decided by seven points or more, but that jumps to 59% in games decided by six points or fewer. With nearly half of the 126 Origin games decided by these small margins, the Maroons’ ability to clinch tight games is a key reason for their dominance.

Do the Maroons have a game two hoodoo?

They haven’t won the second match of an Origin series since 2017. Extended further, it’s nine defeats in the past 12 round two encounters.

However, the Blues have only once won game two at Suncorp after losing the series opener, and Queensland have won eight of the past 10 Origin clashes at their HQ.

NSW XVII

Brad Fittler was forced into a huge decision when Nathan Cleary’s hamstring pinged, and he has overlooked the merits of Dally M medallist Nicho Hynes and Suncorp specialist Adam Reynolds in favour of Eels halfback Mitchell Moses. Hynes misses the squad altogether, making way for Reece Robson to offer more versatility in the pack off the bench. He will dovetail at hooker with the recalled Damien Cook. Cameron Murray and Liam Martin were under injury clouds in the build up but both have been passed fit.

Fittler is backing his Blues to rebound from their disappointment in Adelaide, especially skipper James Tedesco who was shown up by Roosters clubmate Lindsay Collins late on. “I think the moment at the end of the game was most probably embarrassing for him and embarrassment is a pretty good motivator,” Fittler said.

NSW: 1 James Tedesco, 2 Brian To’o, 3 Stephen Crichton, 4 Tom Trbojevic, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Jarome Luai, 7 Mitchell Moses, 8 Junior Paulo, 17 Reece Robson, 10 Payne Haas, 11 Tyson Frizell, 12 Hudson Young, 13 Isaah Yeo

Interchange: 14 Stefano Utoikamanu, 15 Cameron Murray, 16 Liam Martin, 9 Damien Cook

IN: Mitchell Moses, Damien Cook, Stefano Utoikamanu, Reece RobsonOUT: Nathan Cleary, Tevita Pangai Junior, Api Koroisau, Nicho Hynes

Four fresh faces in the NSW 17. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAPQueensland XVII

Billy Slater has been forced into three changes due to injury. In the pack, Jai Arrow and Tom Gilbert are replaced by Jeremiah Nanai and Moeaki Fotuaika, while out wide Xavier Coates comes in for Selwyn Cobbo.

“We have had to make a few changes through injury, so it’s not as if we are just rolling out the same side again,” Slater said during the week. “We have got the new boys up to speed and we’ve just tried to apply ourselves at training. It’s been a good week.”

IN: Moeaki Fotuaika, Jeremiah Nanai, Xavier CoatesOut: Jai Arrow, Selwyn Cobbo, Tom Gilbert

Jeremiah Nanai returns to the heat of Origin battle. Photograph: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

As Nick Tedeschi writes, tonight’s clash could be the defining game in Brad Fittler’s coaching career.

The Blues have started favourites in every one of Fittler’s games since he took over in 2018, yet the coach is 8-8 over that time with two series losses. He has been strongly criticised for some questionable selections decisions – Josh Addo-Carr’s omission in 2022 was widely disparaged – and admitted prior to this year’s series opener that he was taking some unnecessary risks. Those risks did not pay off.

Preamble

Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of State of Origin Game 2 between Queensland’s Maroons and New South Wales’s Blues. Kick-off at Suncorp Stadium is not before 8.05pm (AEST).

Three weeks ago the Maroons did what the Maroons do and demonstrate that Queensland is not a place but a state of mind. Unfancied and outplayed for much of Origin I, Billy Slater’s mob turned it on when it mattered to take a series lead to fortress Suncorp.

The narrative since Adelaide has been all about the Blues. NSW selection, strategy, and execution have all been questioned. Why have so many key players underperformed so often? How do they fail repeatedly to get over the line when it matters? Whereto now for Brad Fittler?

Changes were demanded of the Blues but Fittler’s plans have been thrown into disarray with two cruel injury blows. Halfback Nathan Cleary has been ruled out of the remainder of the series with a hamstring injury, while Latrell Mitchell, the man expected to provide the spark, has not yet fully recovered from the complaint that ruled him out of the series opener. In their own ways each are impossible to replace and not what Fittler needed heading to a venue where his side has lost twice as much as it has won.

Queensland are not without their own issues, but they have not come with the same psychodrama. The risk for the Maroons tonight is how they cope with the unfamiliar status of favourites – expected to seal a third series in four years – when their trademark footy has emerged with their backs against the wall.

If you want to get in touch at any point you can always send me an email or pop a tweet to @JPHowcroft. On with the show.

You come at the king, you best not miss. Photograph: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images