'Joker: Folie À Deux' Opening Weekend May Be 2024 Box Office ...

Despite high expectations, presumptions of Oscar contention, and an open field in theaters, WBD’s and DC Studio’s estimated $200-million budgeted comic book sequel Joker: Folie À Deux appears headed for major disappointment on its opening weekend, and may wind up as a 2024 box office punchline.

Joaquin Phoenix stars in "Joker: Folie à Deux."

Joker: Folie à Deux took $7 million from Thursday previews in North America, which is barely more than half of the preview gross for 2019’s Joker. The first film went on to a huge $96 million domestic — this despite being an R-rated release — and $234 million worldwide, before finishing north of $1 billion. All that without a release in China, mind you.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice hasn’t missed a beat so far, and should finish this weekend north of $390 million and will soon top $400 million in global receipts.

The Wild Robot, after winning last weekend with a $35 million domestic overperformance, should easily cash in on a fantastic “A” grade from audiences via Cinemascore and 97% Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score, elevating its domestic haul to about $65 million in North America. Animation remains a big driver of attendance.

With a current 38% “Rotten” and even worse 37% audience score at Rotten Tomatoes, director/cowriter Todd Phillips’ (with screenwriter Scott Silver) Joker: Folie à Deux went from tracking toward a $70 million stateside debut to the current $45-55 million expectation somewhat suddenly over the past week-plus. I expect it to thread the needle right up the middle of that range.

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As other data rolled in and was reported closer to and during release — including additional audience and critics scoring, such as PostTrak and Metacritic — signs increasingly pointed to majority-negative reactions.

There were also aspects of the film’s release that may have contributed to a bad opening weekend. For example, the fact it’s a musical has largely been hidden in the marketing for Joker: Folie à Deux, as has the co-lead nature of Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn. First reactions out of Venice International Film Festival, meanwhile, were mixed, and the increasingly negative signs started to hint at a downturn to come.

For the record, as bad as the numbers look at the moment, keep in mind this is all based on pre-sales, online buzz, and Thursday early screenings data plugged into typical (and deeply flawed, consistently wrong) box office equations, and much of it is worthless for projecting international opening outcomes.

And Joker: Folie à Deux got China coming, which the first film lacked. That said, China alone likely won’t help much if the rest of international markets don't deliver.

A true worst-case scenario looks like perhaps a painted face-plant at about $300 million, if the data from the initial domestic screenings is indicative — and that’s a big "if,” however much the rest of the data seems to back up such dimming expectations.

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A more moderate version of the "it underperforms a lot but isn't a flop” outcome might be more likely, if those international markets are better. With current predictions in the vicinity of $45-55 million domestic, it only takes some decent walk-up business to push it toward $60 million domestic. While not an amazing outcome, it’s still not the collapse from $70 million that a $45 million outcome would be.

Then, if international plays like it has for some other big releases this year and tops expectations, it could wind up around $85-90 million overseas (for now, I’m still expecting in the range of about $80 million), for a total closer to $150 million territory. So, if China delivers a decent outcome when Joker: Folie à Deux bows in the Middle Kingdom, then the film could easily wind up with a good hold through the rest of October and into November — especially overseas.

Which could all be enough to push Joker: Folie à Deux to a final multiplier in the 3.5x range. That could land it somewhere north of $600 million. And as weeks pass and audiences trickle into theaters in search of entertainment, the film’s status as a big-branded adult-focused sequel to a billion dollar hit could add up to soft drops.

But it won’t have long to cash in on that potential, as both Smile 2 and Venom: The Last Dance arrive later this month to take a big bite out of both the older R-rated audience and broader superhero/comic book genre viewership. Still, those overseas numbers could keep delivering even as competition enters the marketplace, and a soft $600+ million avoids red ink, from a box office perspective.

Hardly a disaster at that level, then, but also a big come-down from Joker’s billion dollar business. And make no mistake, it’s a huge disappointment for DC Studios as the first live-action release under the new studio banner. This being a sequel to an Oscar-winning blockbuster, there’s a good argument that studio’s handling of marketing and the overall positioning of Joker: Folie à Deux hurt the film’s chances.

We have to wait to see the Cinemascore, though, to get a better handle on which way Joker: Folie à Deux is headed. That’s a big indicator of audience sentiment and word of mouth going forward, and anything less than a B+ will be bad news.

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A B+ is more in the mid-range, and it depends on whether those reactions lean toward the "B" or toward the "+" basically. A film like 2016’s Suicide Squad turned a B+ into a leggy $749 million blockbuster run, while 2023’s Shazam: Fury of the Gods’ B+ resulted in a disastrous $134 million worldwide (among the worst outcomes for any DC live-action film in cinema history).

If by some miracle the film lands an “A” Cinemascore and we see walk-up business pushing it well past current basement expectations, then that would be a sign tracking and other data are significantly underestimating Joker: Folie à Deux.

In that case, it could still get within shooting distance of $1 billion, but we’d really need to see it beat current low expectations by a notable amount and then heavily overperform internationally — including probably needing a big breakout in China. But lacking that sort of miracle, there may already be no real chance for Joker: Folie à Deux to make a run at Deadpool & Wolverine’s crown as biggest R-rated movie in history.

And an audience grade of B would almost certainly point to a worst-case outcome, especially without any big numbers that far exceed the data we’re seeing so far.

My early and moderate assessment is about $50 million domestic, $80 million international, $130 million for the weekend, and a final tally over/under $400 million. But I won’t be shocked to see it overperform the current gloomier outlook and perhaps play a bit stronger and a tad longer, to fight its way to $500 million.

Of course, that’s all less than 24 hours into screenings, and everything can change as numbers roll in this weekend.

All eyes will be on tonight’s numbers and Saturday’s dump, and how strong the early overseas ticket sales look. But so far, it appears likely Joker: Folie à Deux will wind up among the underperformers of 2024 — not the result DC Studios wanted for their last theatrical release before next year’s Superman reboot of the entire DC cinematic shared universe on July 11th.

It appears, then, that the studio will have to take solace in the overwhelmingly positive reactions to the Max streaming series The Penguin, spun off from Matt Reeves’ successful The Batman cinematic universe that launched to the tune of $772 million in 2022. A sequel, The Batman — Part II, arrives on October 2nd, 2026.

If, in the aftermath of a Joker: Folie à Deux underperformance or outright flop, writer-director (and DC Studios co-CEO, alongside Peter Safran) James Gunn’s Superman also failed to take blockbuster flight in 2025, then at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if WBD positioned Reeves’ The Batman universe as a “backup” from which to grow yet another rebooted shared super-world.