Putin lowers bar for nuclear strike amid Ukraine attacks: Why it matters

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday warned that Russia was changing its rules towards nuclear weapons, effectively lowering the threshold at which it might use them.

Experts said the threat was designed to scare the United States and its allies at a time when Ukraine is pressuring NATO members to allow it to use their long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russian territory.  

Here’s what Putin said, why it represents a shift in Moscow’s nuclear policy, and what it could mean for Russia’s war on Ukraine.

What did Putin say?

Putin detailed the latest changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine during a televised meeting of Russia’s Security Council.

He said an attack that poses a “critical threat” to the sovereignty of Russia, if carried by a non-nuclear power with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” would be considered a “joint attack on the Russian Federation”.

Putin did not spell out any countries, but the message was clear: If the Kremlin concludes that a Ukrainian assault on its soil using US, French or British missiles represents a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty, Moscow will consider Kyiv’s Western allies as the attackers too.

Putin said such a scenario would meet Russia’s criteria – under its updated doctrine – for the use of nuclear weapons.

“We will consider such a possibility when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border,” Putin added, listing “strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other flying vehicles”.

He added that this also applies to attacks on neighbouring Belarus, which Moscow considers its most steadfast ally. In late August, Ukraine accused Belarus of amassing troops on the two countries’ shared border.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal globally, with a stockpile of 6000 warheads, some stationed in Belarus.

How does this lower Russia’s nuclear threshold?

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had on September 1 warned that Russia would amend its nuclear doctrine – which was last updated in 2020 – in response to growing threats from the West and its allies.

This came after Ukraine, in August, launched a major offensive in Russia’s Kursk region using Western weapons, grabbing control of dozens of settlements.

But until now, Russia had not clarified what changes it would make to its nuclear doctrine. That was deliberate, said experts.

It kept the changes ambiguous on purpose, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera earlier this month. “Russia wants the world to think that it is at a nuclear hair trigger and that anything could cause nuclear war,” said Giles, who is also the author of an upcoming book, Who will Defend Europe?

That ambiguity has partly gone with Putin’s comments.

Under the 2020 doctrine, Russia outlined that it could respond even to conventional attacks with nuclear strikes if it concluded that “the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”. But the assumption was that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons – even in response to conventional weapons – only if the country attacking it was itself a nuclear state. After all, as the present doctrine outlines, Russia views nuclear weapons as a “deterrent”.

However, Putin’s new position suggests that Russia could use nuclear weapons even against a non-nuclear state – such as Ukraine – if it is backed by nuclear-armed nations. That fundamentally lowers the threshold for use of atomic weapons.

Does the new policy increase potential Russian nuclear targets?

In theory, it does – in three ways.

First, non-nuclear states could be targeted if they attack with help from nuclear states.

Second, by describing such assaults on Russia as a “joint attack”, Putin has effectively laid the ground for Moscow to argue that it could target Ukraine’s nuclear-armed allies – the US, UK and France – directly, on their soil, if Kyiv attacks Russia in ways that the Kremlin concludes are a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.

Third, by saying that these principles would also hold if allies like Belarus are targeted, Putin has expanded the set of circumstances under which Russia might launch a nuclear response.

Is there any imminent risk of nuclear escalation?

Not really, say experts.

Giles told Al Jazeera, in an interview on Wednesday, that Putin’s recent announcement was still vague. It is unclear when Russia will formalise the changes that Putin said the country would introduce to its nuclear doctrine. And as of yet, the US and its allies have not greenlit Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles inside Russia.

“Nothing has happened at this point, nothing has changed,” Giles said.

Why did Putin make this announcement now?

This announcement comes a month after Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, intensifying the war. Since then, a Russian counteroffensive has pushed Ukrainian troops back from many of the areas they had captured.

But Ukrainian forces remain inside Russian territory – and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Kyiv wants to hold on to its Kursk gains and use them as a bargaining chip during negotiations for territorial exchanges with Moscow. Russia controls large parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces in Ukraine, in addition to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

Zelenskyy is currently in the US lobbying with the Biden administration, seeking its approval – and that of the UK – to use long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory.

Giles noted that Putin’s latest announcement is an attempt at deterring the US from backing Ukraine by lifting restrictions on long-range missiles.

“Whenever Russia detects that there is a risk for the development of the support for Ukraine that it would dislike, the nuclear threats ramp up,” he said.

Giles stated that while Putin’s deterrence might work on the US, other allies of Ukraine who would be at immediate threat in case of a nuclear attack due to geographical proximity, such as the Baltic states, are “emphatic” that restrictions on long-range missiles be lifted.

Experts point out that despite the significance of Moscow’s announced change in nuclear doctrine, it is only the latest in a series of implicit or explicit nuclear threats made by Putin since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.