What Is 'Cloud Seeding'—And Did It Cause Dubai's Record Flooding?

10 days ago

Forbes

Topline

As the United Arab Emirates grapples with historic floods that have overtaken roads and highways, disrupted flights at Dubai International Airport and killed nearly 20 in neighboring Oman, theories arose as to whether the UAE’s practice of “cloud seeding” may have contributed to the historic rainfall—a theory that has drawn skepticism from many experts.

People look out at floodwater covering a major road in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, April ... [+] 17, 2024. Heavy thunderstorms lashed the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, dumping over a year and a half's worth of rain on the desert city-state of Dubai in the span of hours as it flooded out portions of major highways and its international airport. (AP Photo/Jon Gambrell)

As videos of intense flooding across Dubai surfaced on social media this week, many news outlets and observers speculated about the role of cloud seeding—a process that releases particles into clouds in order to increase the likelihood of rain, often used in dry places that experience little rainfall like the United Arab Emirates.

Conflicting reports emerged Wednesday over whether cloud seeding occurred prior to Tuesday’s flooding: Meteorologist Ahmed Habib told Bloomberg cloud seeding planes were out flying on Monday and Tuesday, but the country’s National Center of Meteorology told the outlet seeding occurred Sunday and Monday, and then told CNBC no seeding occurred prior to the flooding at all.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press tracked planes affiliated with the National Center of Meteorology that appeared to have flown around the country on Monday (The center could not immediately be reached for comment).

Some experts have doubted that cloud seeding could have contributed to the rainfall in any significant way, and have instead blamed climate change, with estimates claiming cloud seeding is only capable of increasing seasonal precipitation by around 10% or 20%, with UAE officials estimating their own program only increases rainfall by around 10-30% per year.

Contra

“There is no technology in existence that can create or even severely modify this kind of rainfall event,” said Professor Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the England-based University of Reading, in response to rumors that cloud seeding caused Dubai’s flooding. Ambaum noted several forecasters “very accurately” predicted the high risk of flooding a week ago. He argued the recent rainfall was the result of thunderstorms that formed as heat drew moisture up into the atmosphere, which can create a large amount of rain as they occur “one after another.” He added “these types of intense rainfall events can be made more extreme due to climate change, as a warmer atmosphere will hold more water vapour.” Other experts agreed, with Roslyn Prinsley of the Australian National University Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions telling TIME magazine that blaming cloud seeding for the floods amounted to “conspiracy theories.”

How Does Cloud Seeding Work?

Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that uses either ground-based generators or aircraft to disburse into existing clouds compounds that can cause rain or snow to fall, according to the Nevada-based Desert Research Institute, a non-profit research organization that runs its own cloud seeding program. The Desert Research Institute says it uses silver iodide, a crystal-like substance that can prompt the formation of snowflakes, while UAE officials have reportedly said they simply use “natural salts” in their program, which experts say has no negative environmental impact. When pilots in the UAE identify suitable moisture-filled clouds, they take off in specialized planes that with hygroscopic flares that can shoot the salt into clouds, increasing water droplet size, forcing them to fall to the ground, according to a CNBC report on the program last month.

News Peg

Dubai was hit with 5.59 inches of rain on Tuesday—more than than the city typically receives in a full year. The weather snarled traffic and disrupted flights in and out of the Dubai International Airport amid social media videos of planes taxiing on waterlogged runways. At least one person was reported dead in the UAE, according to local media, while 19 were reported dead in neighboring Oman.

Key Background

The UAE has been experimenting with cloud seeding since the 1990s, according to CNBC, but the practice is carried out in many places across the world. It’s a common practice in areas hoping to increase snowpack, with officials experimenting with cloud seeding to produce snow in Wyoming, Australia, Montana and elsewhere, according to the Desert Research Institute. Officials in California also regularly cloud seeding to produce rainfall. Cloud seeding has been wrapped up in conspiracy theories about natural disasters before—earlier this year, two damaging February storms in California prompted widespread social media posts theorizing that cloud seeding contributed to the rainfall, even as officials said no cloud seeding had occurred.