Iran and Israel are in a dangerous game of chicken, with a deadly ...
The events of the past week have put the Middle East in a strange and uncertain space.
Neither Iran nor Israel would benefit from the prospect of an all-out war with the other. But equally, neither seems prepared to back down.
And so, today, the world watches and waits as two highly militarised powers duke it out in a delicate game of chicken, where the prize for winning is deadly.
We've seen tit-for-tat strikes so far: in April an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate compound in Damascus, Syria killed several Iranian military leaders.
Tehran promised there would be a significant response — and that came last weekend, in the form of more than 300 missiles and drones launched at Israel.
Although nearly all were intercepted before reaching their targets, it was the first time Iran had ever directly attacked Israeli territory.
Israel's retaliation, a suspected missile or drone attack launched early Friday morning at military targets in Iran, has sparked calls for calm from world leaders.
Joe Biden held emergency talks after Iran's missile strike on Israel last week. (The White House via AP)
There have already been some clues in the hours after the attack as to what might happen next, and whether things will continue to escalate.
Iranian officials appear to be downplaying the significance of this attack, saying there were no on-the-ground explosions or significant damage.
This could be Tehran's way of de-escalating the situation. By talking down the significance of the attack, the pressure to retaliate also diminishes.
No mention of Israel was even made in Iranian news reports about Friday's incident.
Officials are yet to comment publicly, but in private, they've suggested there are no plans to respond.
That's what many world leaders — who feel both countries have made their point — are hoping for.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is among them, and said: "Significant escalation is not in anyone's interest. What we want to see is calm heads prevail across the region."
Australia's Acting Foreign Minister Katy Gallagher also said further escalations were "in no-one's interests".
"We urge all parties to exercise restraint and step back to avoid a further spiral of violence," she said.
Iranians attend an anti-Israel rally in Tehran on Friday.(West Asia News Agency: Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)
Even if the two archenemies draw a line under this latest round of attacks, there's already been an unprecedented shift in the status quo.
Both powers have put each other on notice that the old way of doing things is over.
For years Israel and Iran have targeted each other in a shadow war, fighting through proxies and attacks on foreign soil.
But the events of the last month transformed the conflict from covert, to overt.
For the first time, we are seeing two military giants — who both have nuclear capabilities — attacking each other directly.
And with each creep in the escalation, the threat of a wider conflict grows.
Iran saw Israel's attack on the Damascus compound as a breach of the unofficial guardrails that had contained previous fighting.
But more than six months on from Hamas' October 7 attack, rockets continuing to be fired at communities in Israel's north from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Houthi terrorists targeting shipping in the Red Sea, perhaps former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett summed up the counter-perspective best this week.
"[Iran is] a terror-octopus whose head is Tehran, and its tentacles are in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Gaza," he said.
"Israel's strategic mistake for the past 30 years was to play along this strategy. We always fought the Octopus' arms, but hardly exacted a price from its Iranian head.
"This should change now: Hezbollah or Hamas shoots a rocket at Israel? Tehran pays a price."
Objects are seen in the sky above Jerusalem after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel earlier this month.(Reuters: Ronen Zvulun)
Iran's response, which included drones, ballistic and cruise missiles fired at Israel, took the conflict to a place it had never been before.
Damage was minimal — although a young child remains in critical condition from injuries sustained in a blast — but for the first time, the countries were locked in a direct conflict.
At the time, the United States President Joe Biden urged Israel to take the fact Iran's barrage caused almost no damage as a "win".
"You got a win. Take the win," he reportedly told the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while adding that the US would not participate in any subsequent Israeli offensive on Iran.
But inside Israel, Mr Netanyahu faced massive pressure from the right-wing members of his coalition to exact revenge with a sharp and immediate military response.
There was a view among some in the Netanyahu cabinet, that Tehran had to be taught a lesson, even if that risked an all-out war.
Senior leaders within the Israel Defense Forces reportedly also wanted a military response, in a sign of strength and deterrence.
What has eventuated is a more nuanced response, that security commentators are also labelling as a "middle-ground" move by Israel.
Israel's attack appears to be a limited number of strikes on military targets, without military or civilian causalities, in an action that's at the lower end of the spectrum of the possible retaliations Israel could have opted for.
While Israeli officials haven't commented on the strike, some in the country's media have branded it a massive success in deterrence.
But it's undeniable that an Israeli attack directly into Iran is a major provocation and all eyes are now on Iran and how it will respond.
Similar conversations will be happening within Iran this weekend, and both countries have already proven they're willing to attack each other directly now, if pushed.
And so the world watches, and waits, while Israel and Iran stare each other down, with both sides simultaneously trying to avoid an all-out war, and being seen as weak.
