Devin Haney Vs. Ryan Garcia: Odds, Records, Prediction

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 16: (L-R) Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia face-off at The Empire State ... [+] Building on April 16, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images for Empire State Realty Trust)

Getty Images for Empire State Realty Trust

A month ago, it was difficult to see the Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia fight actually happening. Garcia was increasingly erratic with his social media posts, and his family said they were worried about his mental state. It was unclear if Garcia actually was healthy enough to compete. Apparently he is (a big emphasis on the word “apparently”), and as a result, boxing fans will get to see one of the most consequential 140-pound fights that can be made. Unless, that is, the fight gets canceled after this is published. Here’s everything you need to know about Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Garcia said he’s simply being a troll and that he’s building interest in this fight, but his social media posts in the leadup to this card are worrisome. His posts have been erratic and filled with conspiracy theories and other outlandish claims, and they prompted his ex-wife to say, “[I'm] genuinely concerned and so is all his family members ... We are not part of any of this and want him to get better but this is REAL. Pray for him.” Even at Friday’s weigh-in, Garcia acted unusually (and that’s putting it lightly).

For his part, Haney has mostly stayed above the fray.

“At the end of the day, Ryan Garcia is going to say what he is going to say,” Haney said. “No matter what, I am going to do my job to be the very best Devin Haney I can be. Whichever version of Ryan shows up on April 20, I will be ready for him. Ryan Garcia is just another opponent to me. I am in competition with greatness. That is why I train so hard. That is why I stay so disciplined.”

Haney, the former undisputed lightweight champion, moved up to 140 pounds last December and immediately won a world title by dominating Regis Prograis. If anybody needed confirmation that Haney could have success at junior welterweight, the Prograis result was it. He boxed beautifully, but he also hurt Prograis and scored a knockdown.

Though Haney’s KO percentage is less than 50%, it seems the new weight could give him a more significant punch.

Garcia, though, has strong one-punch power, and he’s been a 140-pounder since 2022. He’s also had success against Haney. In their six amateur fights, both men won three a piece. So, perhaps it is possible for Garcia to pull off the upset.

"It's going to be light work for me,” he said. “I am going to cook Devin Haney. Just another day in the office. Devin is not on my level, and he will never be on my level."

Boxing Hall of Fame broadcaster Jim Lampley, though, doesn’t agree with Garcia. Forget about the leadup to the fight. Even without all those distractions, it’s easy to believe Haney is the superior boxer and will win rather handily.

“Since the time when these two split six amateur fights 3-3, Haney . . . has gotten steadily better and steadily more focused, and Garcia has amassed huge numbers of social media followers and raised logical questions regarding his level of mental health,” said Lampley, who will co-host a live viewer chat in real time during PPV.com’s live stream of Saturday’s card. “What else do you need to know? The logical choice is Haney by quality unanimous decision. It won’t be at all shocking if Haney wins 10, 11 or all 12 rounds. It WILL be shocking to this observer if Haney finds a way to lose.”

Even worse, Garcia came in more than three pounds over the 140-pound limit at Friday’s weigh-in. The two fighters’ camps salvaged the fight, but Garcia reportedly will pay Haney an extra $1.5 million ($500,000 per pound over the limit) because he couldn’t make weight.

Here’s more info on the Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com for $79.99 (no subscription required) or on DAZN (which costs $69.99 if you already have a subscription) beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 19: Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia face off during a weigh-in at Barclays ... [+] Center on April 19, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Cris Esqueda/Golden Boy/Getty Images)

Getty Images Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia odds

Haney is a big betting favorite at -800 (bet $800 to win $100), and that seems a little wide for me (at one point, Haney was only -500). Meanwhile, Garcia is the +500 underdog (win $500 on a $100 wager). In March, Haney was actually -1000 and Garcia was +600, so the odds have narrowed in the last six weeks or so.

Still, you should ignore the money lines. If you like Haney, I’d go with him to win by decision at -120. But another wrinkle would be to take Haney to win by stoppage, because even though Haney hasn’t shown much power for much of his career, that stoppage prop bet also includes winning by disqualification. If you feel like there’s a good chance Garcia’s behavior will get him disqualified, going with a Haney stoppage victory at +150 could be a smart play. If you like Garcia, I’d take him to win by stoppage at +800, because it seems awfully unlikely he can outbox Haney.

Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia records

Even at the young age of 25, Haney (31-0, 15 KOs) is building a Hall of Fame resume. He’s coming off a one-sided beatdown of Regis Prograis, and before that, he won a close decision vs. Vasily Lomachenko and utterly dominated George Kambosos in back-to-back contests that solidified him as the undisputed lightweight champion.

Seven months after getting knocked out by Gervonta “Tank” Davis, Garcia (24-1, 20 KOs) rebounded last December with a stoppage of Oscar Duarte. Garcia didn’t look fabulous, but he was good enough to get the job done. He’ll need to look a lot better than mediocre against Haney to have any chance at scoring the upset.

Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia prediction

I don’t see how you can predict Garcia to win and have any confidence that it would actually happen. Perhaps Garcia is playing up his own controversy for PPV buys and ticket sales. But even if he was in top form physically and mentally, he’d still have a difficult time with Haney. Garcia could land some hard punches that could put Haney in trouble, but in the end, Haney’s superiority will win him a rather wide decision. Say, somewhere in the 118-110 neighborhood.