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Australian banks predict another interest rate rise

Australia’s big four banks are forecasting future interest rate rises, ignoring bets in financial markets that the cash rate has reached its peak.

ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac believe the RBA will lift its key interest rate by at least another 25 basis points, based on economic data already released. Earlier this month, the RBA hiked the rate for a record 10th consecutive time to 3.6%.

Investors responded to turmoil in financial markets over the past fortnight by slashing expectations about RBA rate moves, predicting the next move would be lower, after US authorities rescued Silicon Valley Bank and two others and the Swiss government helped UBS take over the ailing financial services company Credit Suisse.

However, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and even the Swiss National Bank each lifted official interest rates this week, viewing the fight against inflation higher priority than easing the squeeze on their respective economies.

Australia’s main commercial banks think the RBA have at least as much reason to stay on its inflation-beating course given the relative stability of the country’s financial system. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, this week said he was receiving twice-daily briefings and that “our banks are well-regulated, well-capitalised and highly liquid and are in a better position than most to deal with these disruptions”.

The democracy sausages are sizzling

If you’re out voting in NSW this morning, let us know what’s going on.

Voting underway in NSW

Voting is under way in NSW, with more than 4 million people across the state set to decide who will form government for the next four years.

By Friday close to a quarter of the state’s 5.5 million voters had cast their ballots, AAP reported, with nearly 1.2 million people pre-polling and 92,000 lodging postal votes.

The premier, Dominic Perrottet, and the Labor leader, Chris Minns, have campaigned hard in key seats in western Sydney, where one in 10 Australians live and could well decide the election result.

Perrottet is expected to vote in his seat of Epping, in Sydney’s north-west while Minns will cast his vote in the seat of Kogarah, in the city’s south, which he holds by a 0.1 per cent margin.

The premier is seeking a fourth consecutive four-year term for his Liberal-National coalition on a platform of responsible financial management he says would fund life-changing infrastructure.

It would be the first time the party has managed the feat since 1973.

Western Sydney ‘a tight contest’

Western Sydney could be key to the NSW election result today. As Andy Marks from Western Sydney University explains, there are a number of seats in play.

Here’s what Marks told ABC News a short time ago:

Election time is our time to shine in western Sydney, it seems. It’s always a tight contest. This time round, it’s no different. There’s roughly about seven seats that are in play. So its common place to see politicians on every corner. You’ll notice that a lot of the big announcements have been made in western Sydney, both major parties camped out there for a few weeks.

Marks said it was difficult to call who would win the majority of seats in western Sydney.

Polling has taken a battering as well, since the Morrison victory against the odds. It’s very difficult to gauge whether or not the polling is accurate. And also, this is different because it’s a bit of a street by street contest. Neighbourhood issues that are bubbling up as opposed to the big ticket stuff.

Share market falls for seventh straight week

The local share market has endured its seventh consecutive losing week as interest rate hikes and fears about the stability of the global banking system weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished the trading week yesterday afternoon down 13.4 points, or 0.19%, to 6,955.2, after having been down as much as 0.65% in the first 15 minutes of trading, Australian Associated Press reports.

For the week the ASX200 lost 39.6 points, or 0.57%. Its seven-week losing streak is its longest such stretch since nine consecutive weeks of losses during the global financial crisis in mid-2008.

Recent weeks have seen the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and the Swiss investment bank, Credit Suisse. On Friday shares in Deutsche Bank, another European investment bank that has struggled since the GFC, fell 14%.

Overnight the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, a widely anticipated move after official data released Wednesday showed higher than expected inflation, with consumer prices rising 10.4 per cent in the year to February.

While some economists have suggested that the global banking chaos might prompt the Reserve Bank to pause its rate hike campaign at its next meeting a week from Tuesday, Tadgell said he thought it was “highly probable” that Australia’s central bank would again hike rates.

The ASX’s 11 official sectors were mixed on Friday, with five gaining ground and six losing it.

On Friday, NAB was the biggest loser among the Big Four banks, falling 1.6% to $27.18. CBA dropped 1.2% to $95.84, ANZ retreated 1.1% to $22.52 and Westpac subtracted 0.6% to $21.20.

Good morning and welcome to our rolling news coverage on a day that will be dominated by the state election in New South Wales.

The election promises to be the closest for 16 years following a run of fairly comfortable Coalition wins. Labor, under the leadership of Chris Minns, believes it will end its 12-year stint in the wilderness but the Coalition is pinning its hopes on premier Dominic Perrottet’s disciplined campaign. The final Newspoll of the election pointed to a Labor win by 54.5% to 45.5%, a 6.5% swing since the 2019 election and enough to secure 10 seats. Can they do it? Here’s everything you need to know about the big day.

A constitutional expert has described the proposed the proposed Indigenous voice as a “safe and sensible” legal option, dismissing concerns that the advisory body would be too powerful. George Williams, professor of law at the University of New South Wales, says the change is “strikingly modest” and “should remove doubts that parliament is fettered or limited”. Our chief political correspondent, Paul Karp, writes today that opposition leader Peter Dutton faces a dilemma about whether to support the reform. Go with yes and he risks being sidelined. Back a no vote and he will cement his reputation as a wrecker.

The Australian stock market could be in for another sticky day on Monday after shares fell sharply again in Europe overnight amid continued fears about the banking system. In Friday’s session in Sydney, the ASX fell for the seventh week running and it was down by 0.19% on the day. Futures point to the index opening down 1% on Monday morning. It comes as Australian banks think the RBA will raise rates again a week on Tuesday despite the market turmoil which some have speculated might bring an end to the record 10 successive months of hikes.